Middle Eastern Perspectives on Pakistan’s General Elections
On Wednesday Pakistanis will go to the polls and elect their representatives for the national and provincial assemblies. The new government will not only face challenges on the domestic and economic fronts but also will have to build upon the legacy of the former government in terms of foreign relations.
All foreign actors are anxiously observing these developments and the Middle Eastern states are no exception. Pakistan traditionally has maintained cordial ties with all Middle Eastern states, but its relations with the Arab Gulf kingdoms, Turkey and Iran have always been of particular significance.
The frontrunners for the upcoming elections include Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML-N, led by the former chief minister of Punjab Shehbaz Sharif, while his brother, the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, still remains the party’s center of gravity. PML-N is facing a strong challenge from the cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The Sharifs have been in the Pakistani political sphere since the 1980s and have long-standing ties with different royal houses of the Arabian Gulf kingdoms, built on the legacy of the former president General Zia-ul-Haq.
These strong personal connections were quite apparent in foreign policy decisions, specifically Pakistan’s active participation in the liberation of Kuwait. In the aftermath of the military coup of 1999, Crown Prince Abdullah was pivotal in rescuing Nawaz by brokering a deal with the military and later on hosted him as a royal guest. As Nawaz returned back into power after the elections of 2013, Pakistan’s ties with its Middle Eastern partners got a significant boost, while relations started becoming cold.
During this stint in power, the Sharifs formed extensive personal ties with the royal family of Qatar and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in addition to their ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. On the other hand, it won’t be wrong to describe Imran Khan and his political party as novices vis-à-vis Pakistan’s friends in the Middle East. Neither he nor his party have any long-standing ties or personal friendships within ruling quarters in the Middle East.
Pakistan traditionally has maintained cordial ties with all Middle Eastern states, but its relations with the Arab Gulf kingdoms, Turkey and Iran have always been of particular significance.
Umer Karim
It is pertinent to note here that in the elections of 2018, the considerations of Middle Eastern players have been shaped by political developments within Pakistan, the stance of respective Pakistani political elites on politics of the region and also by the geopolitical changes within the Middle East. Since Nawaz’s return to power, Saudi Arabia backed his government with hefty financial aid of $1.5 billion. The Saudi support came at a much-needed time and was extremely helpful in stabilizing the value of Pakistani currency against the dollar by shoring up foreign exchange reserves while also aiding in debt servicing. This Saudi investment in the political stakes of Nawaz Sharif didn’t give the desired political returns.
When the Saudi-led coalition intervened militarily in Yemen, the Kingdom requested Pakistan to contribute its troops for the ongoing military operations. The Nawaz government took a stance of neutrality after a joint parliamentary resolution denied the Saudi request. Interestingly, this was the Nawaz government’s first major engagement with the new Saudi leadership of King Salman and his powerful son Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and it didn’t go well. The next crucial event came in the form of the Qatar crisis, where again Pakistan opted for neutrality. Incidentally, this happened at the same time when Nawaz and his daughter were facing a judicial probe in regards to the Panama Papers scandal and their only hope of salvation rested on a letter from a Qatari prince declaring their properties in London as a personal gift. This increased dependence of Nawaz’s political fortunes on Qatari royalty exacerbated his dislike in the Saudi and Emirati ruling quarters.
The Sharifs made a last-ditch attempt to mend their ties with the Saudi rulers at the start of this year, but it ended in dismay. Since then there has not been any signal from the Saudi side if it will lend support to any political entity in the upcoming elections. Recently, the only noteworthy if not consequential happening was Imran Khan being treated as a state guest while visiting the Kingdom to perform Umrah. Meanwhile, the newly re-elected Erdogan sent a letter to Shehbaz Sharif, expressing his best wishes and hope that the friendly ties between both countries would be further strengthened due to Shehbaz’s cooperation presumably after his electoral victory. This may not be a sign of any actual political partisanship on the part of Turkish president but definitely exhibits the nature of proximity between the Sharif family and Erdogan. The situation was not that rosy at the Abu Dhabi airport, where Nawaz’s movements were monitored before his recent return to Pakistan, showing that the Emiratis harbor no sympathies for him.
These developments are helpful in contextualizing perspectives within the Middle East on the Pakistani elections. How they will eventually impact upon Pakistan’s ties with these regional political actors will ultimately depend upon the outcome of the elections and the policy line taken by the new government.
– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, the conflict in Syria and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. @UmarKarim89
