BEIJING: China's factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August while growth in other key sectors also cooled, raising fears the world's second-largest economy may be at risk of a sharp slowdown unless Beijing takes fresh stimulus measures.
The output data, combined with weaker readings in retail sales, investment and imports, pointed to a further loss of momentum as the cooling housing market increasingly drags on other sectors from cement to steel and saps consumer confidence.
Industrial output rose 6.9 percent in August from a year earlier — the lowest since 2008 when the economy was buffeted by the global financial crisis — compared with expectations for 8.8 percent and slowing sharply from 9.0 percent in July.
"The August data may point to a hard landing. The extent of the growth slowdown in the third quarter won't be small," said Xu Gao, chief economist at Everbright Securities in Beijing.
"The chances of cutting interest rates and bank reserve requirements have increased. I think they are more likely to cut interest rates."
Some analysts believe annual economic growth may be sliding towards 7 percent in the third quarter, putting the government's full-year target of around 7.5 percent in jeopardy unless it takes more aggressive action. Experts reckon output growth of around 9 percent would be needed to attain such a goal.
"Short of outright policy easing, China will likely miss the 7.5 percent growth target this year, and a sharp economic slowdown will endanger the undergoing structural reforms," Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao at ANZ wrote in a note.
"As such, we reckon that Chinese authorities should further relax monetary policy as soon as possible to prevent growth momentum from decelerating further."
Reinforcing the tepid economic activity, China's power generation declined for the first time in four years, falling 2.2 percent in August from a year earlier, and pointing to slackening demand from major industrial users.
Jiang Yuan, a senior statistician with the bureau, said the dip in August factory growth was due to weak global demand, especially from emerging markets, and the slowdown in the property sector that hit demand for steel, cement and vehicles.
China's economy got off to a weak start this year as first-quarter growth cooled to an 18-month low of 7.4 percent. Beijing responded with a flurry of stimulus measures that pushed the pace up slightly to 7.5 percent in the second quarter, but soft July and August data suggest the boost from those steps is rapidly waning.
"The government must take forceful policy measures to stabilize growth," said Li Huiyong, an analyst at Shenyin & Wanguo Securities in Shanghai.
HARD LANDING?
Other activity indicators for August were also mostly weaker than expected.
Retail sales climbed 11.9 percent, lagging forecasts of 12.1 percent and July's 12.2 percent, with growth in car sales in particular off sharply, suggesting consumers are more cautious.
Carmaker BYD Co. Ltd., backed by billionaire Warren Buffett, recently warned profit may fall by as much as a fifth in the first nine months of the year.
Fixed-asset investment, an important driver of economic activity, grew 16.5 percent in the first eight months from the same period last year, lower than forecasts. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 16.9 percent growth, slowing from 17.0 percent in Jan-July.
Much of the broader decline appears linked to the slowdown in the property market, which is intensifying.
Property investment data also released on Saturday showed further declines in sales and new construction, while growth in sales of housing-related goods such as home appliances, furniture and building materials all slowed.
Mortgage issuance in the first eight months fell 4.5 percent from a year earlier, worse than a 3.7 percent drop in January-July. Some would-be buyers have complained of long delays in getting loans as banks grow more cautious, while others may be holding off in anticipation of further price declines.
Data on Friday showed that credit levels in China appeared to improve in August after an alarming drop in July, but remained below average. Bad loans are on the rise and banks expect more to go sour as the economy slows.
That followed trade data that showed China's exports were buoyant but import growth unexpectedly fell for the second consecutive month in August, posting its worst performance in over a year.
STEADY EMPLOYMENT
While most analysts expect Beijing to unveil more steps in coming months in order to meet its 2014 growth target, the room for policy loosening is seen as limited after past stimulus programs left local governments saddled with piles of debt and fueled rampant speculation, especially in the housing market.
Bolder action now, such as an interest rate cut, may only result in more money going into speculative and potentially destabilizing activity rather the real economy, some analysts have noted.
The last time China suffered a "hard landing" was during the height of the global crisis, when economic growth tumbled to 6.6 percent in early 2009. That is far short of the near collapses which loomed over some developed economies, but still threw tens of millions of Chinese out of work, alarming the Communist Party's stability-obsessed leaders into action.
Despite slower growth, the economy still created 9.7 million new jobs in the first eight months of 2014, a rise of over 100,000 from the same period last year, said Guo Tongxin, another statistician at the bureau, trying to play down the significance of the dismal August indicators.
Ailing property sector drags Chinese economy down
Ailing property sector drags Chinese economy down
Saudi e-commerce thrives as sales using Mada cards reach $3.76bn in February
RIYADH: Saudi e-commerce sales using Mada cards reached SR14.11 billion ($3.76 billion) in February – an annual increase of 25 percent, the Kingdom’s central bank has revealed.
This figure includes transactions through online shopping, in-app purchases and e-wallets, and excludes transactions by Visa, MasterCard and other credit cards.
The number of e-commerce transactions also increased by 44 percent on a year-on-year basis to reach more than 84 million in February.
The shift in consumer behavior post-COVID-19, supported by regulatory reforms, robust internet infrastructure, and the continuous advancement of sophisticated e-commerce businesses, has been key drivers of the shift away from cash.
In the past three years, online sales in Saudi Arabia surged by almost 60 percent across various categories, with significant growth seen in media products, apparel, and footwear segments, according to the American International Trade Administration in a January commercial guide.
Additionally, the average spend per e-commerce user in the Kingdom rose by over 50 percent.
The organization anticipates continuous growth, projecting Saudi Arabia to reach 33.6 million e-commerce users by 2024, marking a 42 percent increase from 2019.
Factors contributing to this growth include the country’s 97 percent smartphone penetration rate, high mobile broadband subscriptions, and ranking as the 10th country globally for internet speed.
Moreover, 72 percent of Saudis over the age of 15 possess bank accounts highlighting the readiness of the population for digital transactions and online commerce.
The organization emphasized the prevalence of local platforms and the introduction of new entrants like Amazon Prime, which debuted in January 2021.
Other contributing factors include the government’s initiatives to enhance the sector’s regulatory framework, aimed at bolstering confidence among Saudis and encouraging the use of its platforms, with a focus on protecting consumers and businesses alike.
However, the organization also highlighted challenges for this sector, particularly the need to strengthen cyber-security measures to counter malicious emailing, which poses risks such as phishing scams exposing sensitive information like passwords, financial details, and personal data.
The shift to online shopping became apparent in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, significantly altering consumer behavior and impacting traditional retail outlets. The rise of e-commerce has proven essential, providing digital access to products and enabling businesses to adapt to changing market trends and consumer preferences.
This trend is reflected in data from the Kingdom’s central bank, also known as SAMA, showing a remarkable surge in e-commerce sales. In 2020, at the onset of the pandemic, sales increased by 279 percent, soaring from SR10.25 billion in 2019 to nearly SR39 billion.
This momentum continued in 2021 with a further annual rise of approximately 91 percent, reaching SR74 billion, and a subsequent increase of 65 percent in 2022 to SR123 billion. By the end of 2023, e-commerce sales through Mada cards had reached SR157 billion, underscoring the sector’s robust growth.
According to data from the German e-commerce database website, the top five online retailers in Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce sector for 2023 are jarir.com, nahdionline.com, amazon.sa, extra.com, and namshi.com.
Jarir.com leads the market with revenues of $452.8 million in 2023, followed by nahdionline.com with $330.1 million in sales, and amazon.sa with $328.5 million.
These top three online retailers collectively account for a market share of 38.7 percent among the top 100 stores in the Kingdom’s e-commerce market, as reported by the database.
The ranking is based on the top stores by net sales in the market for the year 2023.
According to a 2023 Deloitte Digital report, these companies are utilizing data and analytics to gain deeper insights into their customer base, tailoring their offerings to better meet their needs.
The Kingdom has come a long way from a population initially lacking trust in online retailers, limited payment options, and product diversity, to now holding the potential to become a thriving e-commerce market, according to the firm.
This transformation is particularly supported by the Saudi government’s implementation of various initiatives aimed at boosting the digital economy’s contribution to the Kingdom’s gross domestic product.
The adaptability of the regulatory framework and its adjustments to market dynamics have created an environment conducive to the growth of e-commerce and the flourishing of innovative technologies.
As the industry evolves, new payment methods are emerging, prompting the central bank to establish a sandbox for testing and regulating these innovations. This serves as a crucial platform for the industry to experiment with and adopt new technologies.
Additionally, the Communications, Space, and Technology Commission introduced a dedicated sandbox for delivery applications, streamlining operations and enhancing efficiency for e-commerce businesses.
Regulatory initiatives have facilitated the entry of major players like STC, and partnerships such as Aramco’s collaboration with Google Cloud have further supported and provided infrastructure for all participants in the e-commerce ecosystem, Deloitte added.
Furthermore, the establishment of free zones has played a pivotal role in simplifying logistics and expediting the movement of goods, thus bolstering Saudi Arabia’s e-commerce landscape.
Deloitte forecasts a remarkable surge in the sector, with a projected market volume of $23.46 billion by 2027. Additionally, the number of e-commerce users in the Kingdom is expected to reach 34.5 million by 2025, with user penetration increasing from 66.7 percent in 2023 to 74.7 percent by 2027.
Oil Updates — Crude rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook
NEW YORK: Oil prices jumped more than $1 a barrel on Thursday, closing out the month higher on the prospect of OPEC+ staying the course on production cuts, ongoing attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and a falling US rig count tightening crude supplies, according to Reuters.
Brent crude futures for May settled at $87.48 a barrel, its highest level since Oct. 27, after gaining $1.39, or 1.6 percent. The more actively traded June contract settled at $87 a barrel, rising $1.58, with the May contract expiring on Thursday.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for May delivery settled at $83.17 a barrel, rising $1.82, or 2.2 percent.
On the week, Brent rose 2.4 percent and WTI gained about 3.2 percent. Both benchmarks finished higher for a third consecutive month.
In the prior session, oil prices had come under pressure from last week’s unexpected rise in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, driven by an increase in crude imports and sluggish gasoline demand, according to Energy Information Administration data.
However, the crude stock increase was smaller than the build projected by the American Petroleum Institute, and analysts noted the increase was lower than expected for the time of year.
“We ... expect US inventories to rise less than normal in reflection of a global oil market in a slight deficit,” SEB analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said. “This will likely hand support to the Brent crude oil price going forward.”
US refinery utilization rates, which rose 0.9 percentage point last week, also supported prices.
The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, also fell by three to 621 in the week to March 28, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.
The US economy, meanwhile, grew faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 3.4 percent annualized rate from the previously reported 3.2 percent pace, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said.
“The strength in the stock market suggests strong forward earnings that are, in turn, hinting at a surprisingly strong US economy conducive toward better than expected energy product demand,” said Jim Ritterbusch of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates.
Inflation data also affirmed the case for the US Federal Reserve to hold off on cutting its short-term interest rate target, a Fed governor said on Wednesday, but he did not rule out trimming rates later in the year.
“The market is converging on a June start to cuts for both the Fed and the European Central Bank,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note. Lower interest rates typically support oil demand.
Investors will watch for cues from a meeting next week of the Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee of producer group the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Increased geopolitical risk has raised expectations of possible supply disruption, but OPEC+ is unlikely to make any oil output policy changes until a full ministerial gathering in June.
Attacks by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure have also boosted the sentiment around global crude supplies tightening and helped to support oil prices, said Again Capital LLC partner John Kilduff.
“It’s a prime target, and they appear to have not heeded the ask by the Biden administration to not attack Russian energy infrastructure,” Kilduff said.
UAE, Saudi Arabia ranked as leading global entrepreneurial ecosystems
RIYADH: The UAE and Saudi Arabia have been ranked first and third respectively in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor report for 2023-2024.
The report, which assesses the entrepreneurial ecosystems of countries worldwide, is highly regarded by international bodies such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and various UN organizations,
Saudi Arabia showed significant progress in its entrepreneurial environment, with its National Entrepreneurship Context Index score increasing from 5.0 in 2019 to 6.3 in both 2022 and 2023.
This reflected the country’s successful efforts to diversify its economy and foster a supportive climate for entrepreneurship, said the report. A notable highlight was increased female entrepreneurship, with eight women starting new businesses for every 10 men in 2023.
The country also has the highest proportion of adults who know an entrepreneur, perceive ease in starting a business, recognize good business opportunities, and believe they possess the necessary skills and experience to start a business.
However, despite high acknowledgment of opportunities and capabilities, there remains a considerable fear of failure, the report concluded.
Additionally, a significant percentage of Saudi entrepreneurs are expected to leverage digital technologies and focus on minimizing environmental impacts and maximizing social impacts, indicating a readiness for future challenges.
Meanwhile, the UAE set a record with its National Entrepreneurship Context Index score of 7.7, the highest in the report’s history.
The report also positioned the UAE as the best environment in the world for starting and conducting new business ventures, surpassing many advanced economies. It also ranked third globally in terms of physical infrastructure.
Significant strides have been made in entrepreneurship education within schools, emphasizing skills like creative thinking, problem solving, opportunity recognition and risk assessment. The country ranked among the top five out of 49 in this aspect.
Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan discuss climate action cooperation ahead of COP29
- Two ministers discussed opportunities for work and cooperation between their two countries in the field of climate change
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman met with Azerbaijan’s Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev on Thursday.
Babayev has also been appointed president of the UN COP29 climate talks which will be held in Baku in November.
During the meeting, the two ministers discussed opportunities for work and cooperation between their two countries in the field of climate change. They also talked about joint efforts to achieve the goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, the Kingdom’s ministry said in a statement.
They reviewed the Kingdom’s efforts and initiatives in dealing with the effects of climate change, such as exploiting renewable energy sources, and managing, reducing and eliminating emissions through the Saudi and Middle East green initiatives.
In addition, the ministers discussed implementing the circular carbon economy approach and its technologies, which was developed by the Kingdom during its G20 presidency and endorsed by leaders, along with other national and regional programs and initiatives.
Saudi Arabia unveils Green Finance Framework in sustainability push
RIYADH: Public and private participation in climate financing in Saudi Arabia is poised to receive a boost with the introduction of the Green Finance Framework.
This initiative, launched by the Ministry of Finance, is aimed at propelling the nation toward its sustainability goals and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, Saudi Press Agency reported.
The framework is expected to contribute to the efforts aimed at reducing emissions through a circular carbon economy approach, along with positioning Saudi Arabia as a regional leader in sustainable finance.
It was in October 2021 that Saudi Arabia announced its ambitious goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.
With this framework, the Kingdom aims to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonnes annually by 2030, aligning with the commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change that was produced in 2015 and compels signatories to work toward limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The Kingdom has been spearheading several initiatives including the Saudi Green Initiative to combat the adverse effects of climate change over the past few years.
On March 27, the Kingdom celebrated its first Saudi Green Initiative Day highlighting the importance of fostering a sustainable legacy for future generations.
The celebration was organized under the theme “For Our Today and Their Tomorrow: KSA Together for a Greener Future” and it highlighted the collaboration of more than 80 public and private sector projects that are part of the SGI.
To date, Saudi Arabia has deployed 2.8 gigawatts of renewable energy to the national grid, powering more than 520,000 homes, with additional projects underway to increase capacity.
Moreover, more than 49 million trees and shrubs have been planted throughout the Kingdom since 2021, and extensive land rehabilitation efforts have been undertaken.
Additionally, energy giant Saudi Aramco, in collaboration with the Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy is building a carbon capture and storage hub in Jubail, which will have 9 million tonnes annual storage capacity upon its completion in 2027.