Pakistan’s opposition coalition is a marriage of convenience
Bilawal Bhutto and Maryam Nawaz, the young scions of the country’s two most powerful political dynasties met last week to discuss a joint strategy to challenge a blundering government. It is sheer political expediency forcing the bitter rivals to join hands, and it typifies the shifting sands of Pakistani politics.
The question of course is, can these disparate groups mobilize public support? At present, they do not have the street power to bring the government down, despite a substantive electoral support base. Jointly however, they can make things more difficult for Prime Minister Imran Khan who is struggling to come to grips with a dire economic situation.
There is no doubt that high inflation, rising utility bills and a generally depressing economic outlook have fuelled the public’s discontent. But even so, this is not the transformative moment where desperation turns into a mass movement.
Even the opposition parties realize this: that a direct confrontation with the government is not a viable option.
Essentially, what has brought the Pakistan Muslim League-N (PMLN) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) together are the graft cases against their leadership. While former prime minister Nawaz Sharif is already serving his prison sentence and other members of the Sharif family are facing a litany of corruption charges, the noose is tightening around the Zardari family as well. So it is in the interest of the two dynasties to come together to protect their political interests and their dynastic legacy.
It is no coincidence that Asif Ali Zardari, former co-chairperson of the PPP and former President of Pakistan, has now taken a back seat and put his son on the front-lines of political battles. Bilawal, who is also chairman of the PPP, has already made his mark in the national assembly with scathing attacks on the prime minister and on the dismal performance of the PTI government.
Despite being politically handicapped because of his wily father, Bilawal has emerged as a formidable voice of the opposition. The pitch of his tenor has become increasingly loud with the investigation against Zardari entering its final stages and there being a strong possibility the former president could get arrested.
Bilawal has tried to connect the action taken against his father and other party leaders with a government conspiracy to establish a presidential form of government. He has also accused the government of conspiring to strike down the 18th amendment of the constitution that gives the provinces greater autonomy.
That an opposition coalition will at this time be able to achieve anything of value, remains doubtful.
Zahid Hussain
There is no link between the corruption cases and the controversy over the 18th amendment, but the PPP is deliberately creating one to give the accountability process political color.
More significant however, is the resurfacing of Maryam on the country’s political center stage after a period of hibernation. Once projected as heir apparent to Sharif’s political dynasty, Maryam went quiet after she and her father were convicted by an anti-corruption court last year.
Despite her release on bail, her political activities remained restricted to comments on social media. One of the reasons for her taking a back seat was believed to be the decision by the PMLN to temper down a confrontation with the military establishment and the judiciary.
But the party’s strategy seems to have changed earlier this month, after the Supreme Court rejected a petition to extend Nawaz Sharif’s release on bail. With little possibility of Nawaz Sharif’s brother Shahbaz Sharif returning to the country, the way has been cleared for Maryam’s re-activation. Shahbaz, who was running the party after his brother’s conviction has been the main advocate of non-confrontation. He is now out on bail in London.
After the recent restructuring of the PMLN’s top hierarchy, Maryam’s position has been strengthened. For the first time, she has formally been given a leadership role after her appointment as the party’s vice president.
It seems the party has decided to up the ante in order to make its political presence felt, but remains careful to avoid any clash with the powerful military establishment.
Opposition leaders have hinted that they will start nation-wide anti government protests after Eid, but so far, Imran Khan’s government does not seem to be taking the threat seriously. That an opposition coalition will at this time be able to achieve anything of value, remains doubtful. Although there is some convergence on the issues of accountability between the PPP and PMLN, the divergence on key national issues is much too stark for their marriage of convenience to last very long.
