PM Khan in Iran amid border tensions
Prime Minister Imran Khan has embarked on his first official visit to Iran this week at the request of President Hassan Rouhani, but the backdrop is anything but pleasant. Pakistan has lodged an official letter of protest to the Iranian embassy regarding Tehran’s inaction against terror groups based in Iran, who on Thursday morning launched an attack in southwestern Pakistan killing 14 bus passengers, all of the members of Pakistan’s armed forces. Pakistan insists it has shared repeated intelligence about the location of these groups along its 900km border with Iran.
In 1947, Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan as a state and the Shah of Iran was the first foreign head of state to visit the new country. But the Iranian revolution of 1979 saw a deterioration in the bilateral relationship despite Pakistan being the first nation to officially recognize Tehran’s clergy government.
Then, Tehran’s policy of exporting its revolution raised many eyebrows in the region and Pakistan was no exception. Over time, sectarian problems in both countries and the Taliban’s rise to power in Afghanistan in the mid ’90s added fuel to the fire. Increasingly, Pakistan was wary of Iran’s growing ties with India and Tehran viewed Pakistan’s relationship with Gulf states and the US with thinly veiled suspicion.
There were brief moments of diplomatic relief and attempts made through a free-trade agreement, a gas pipeline and Pakistan’s mediatory role after the first Gulf War, but by and large, ties between Pakistan and Iran have remained terse.
But with Islamabad’s current ties with both India and Afghanistan at all-time lows, tensions with Iran must be avoided and areas of united collaboration must be sought.
With the insurgency in Balochistan and Iran-based militant groups routinely attacking civilians and members of the armed forces in Pakistan, coordinated actions, especially honing in on border security, must be taken.
Javed Hafeez
Border management remains a functional area where both Pakistan and Iran can fruitfully co-operate with each other. Pakistan plans to fence the border to limit terrorist attacks, drug and human smuggling. Meanwhile, with economic sanctions crippling the Iranian banking sector, Tehran is actively looking for ways and means to increase its barter trade or trade through innovative payment systems with its regional commercial partners. It is also playing a game of strategic hedging in Afghanistan now that the US looks poised to pull its troops out.
Power dynamics in the region are shifting. The US has walked out of the nuclear deal and Iran is under renewed economic sanctions. Both Iran and Pakistan have moved closer to China and Russia with China being the single largest importer of Iranian oil. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is part of Beijing’s multibillion-dollar belt and road initiative, will also play a pivotal role in Chinese-Iran trade relations. Similarly, the ports in Pakistan’s Gawadar and Iran’s Chahbahar could establish linkages. Additionally, Chahbahar is exempt from US sanctions.
During his visit to Iran, PM Khan will try to focus on points of convergence even though there may not be very many at this time. Khan does seem to have a passion for mediating between estranged Muslim nations and it is possible he will try his hand at it again. But with the region in a state of bind, his penchant for mediation has little chance of success.
While there certainly is potential for economic co-operation in the long run, the prospects of immediate collaboration are limited. PM Khan’s visit looks like a flag-waving exercise; something that he has to undertake following political norms. But with the insurgency in Balochistan and Iran-based militant groups routinely attacking civilians and members of the armed forces in Pakistan, coordinated actions, especially honing in on border security, must be taken.
Pakistan’s relations with its friends in the Gulf have been consistent and reliable, but Pakistan-Iran ties have followed a different trajectory. Both countries can ill afford to create more discord in the region or within their bilateral ties, which will invite external intervention. Sectarian differences and rivalries must be forgotten, and a practical route chartered forward which takes shifting regional dynamics into careful account.
– Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst.
Twitter: @hafiz_javed
