Are Doha Talks Stalled?
The last round of talks between Taliban representatives and the US lasted more than 12 long days in Doha. There was no breakthrough but both sides at the end of the marathon meeting knew exactly each other’s position on some of the more contentious issues.
The demand by the Taliban for a definitive time-frame within which all foreign forces would leave Afghanistan was conceded. However, the two sides could not agree on what the timeframe would be. The Taliban insisted on a short period of one to one and a half years for all external forces to leave; the American side wanted an extended transition period of two and a half to three years.
The issue of providing a guarantee for the non-use of Afghan soil by any power, outfit, group or party was never a stumbling block to reconciliation. It had more to do with the US seeking a dignified exit on its ‘own’ terms. The Taliban representatives were quite willing to give any such assurance once they are in a position of authority in the country.
The US emphasis on commencement of an intra-Afghan dialogue was also discussed. The Taliban would agree in principle to begin discussions with other Afghan groups including the Kabul government once some headway has been made on issues like troops withdrawal and the formation of an interim government.
The latter could pose problems. The composition, mandate, duration and leadership of the such a transitory government are important and difficult to resolve.
The stance of the Afghan government could present the most serious challenge if not properly handled. Essentially, it needs foreign forces for its survival. It would acquiesce in a deal that protects its position as a dominant force in Afghanistan’s institutions. That of course is not going to happen.
As the insurgency gains strength, the vulnerability of the government is exposed. The Taliban assaults are becoming more widespread, more deadly and more frequent. The death toll is rising and so is the number of those wounded. Defections from the Afghan National Army are causing deep concerns in the government. Unemployment has risen sharply and there is a mad rush among rank and file Afghans to leave the country for better pastures.
The stance of the Afghan government could present the most serious challenge if not properly handled. Essentially, it needs foreign forces for its survival. It would acquiesce in a deal that protects its position as a dominant force in Afghanistan’s institutions. That, of course, is not going to happen.
Rustam Shah Mohmand
In a situation as desperate (for the government) as that, some who are in a position of authority in Afghanistan are seeing the writing on the wall; others want to hang on to their positions for as long as possible. Why then, is the US not applying more pressure on the Kabul government to adopt a more pragmatic approach?
The answer lies in the uncertainty of the existing political order. The US is obviously not interested in creating an open discord with its allies. At the same time, it will not go along with the scheme of things the Kabul government is trying to promote.
This dilemma can only be resolved either by the US playing political hardball or the Taliban achieving some spectacular success like the acquisition of some significant territory. It is a question of whether the US continues to push for a reconciliation that guarantees a dominant position for the Taliban or it begins to change its stance and wait for a more opportune time to turn the situation around.
President Donald Trump is clearly hoping to get the parties to agree to a framework agreement in the next few weeks. He would like to market any great success in breaking the stalemate in Afghanistan to the his electorate. An end to the conflict would substantially enhance his reputation and standing. Given the criticism he has received for his withdrawal from the Paris climate deal, the Iran nuclear deal and the Transpacific Trade Agreement, he wants a concrete and solid achievement to be presented to the American people. The Taliban understand this position.
There is then an expectation the talks in Doha will resume soon and some convergence of ideas and positions will begin to emerge. Countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Pakistan, Iran and Qatar are expected to play a role as serious negotiations for creating an interim government get underway.
The Taliban currently enjoy a vastly stronger military position. They are expected to show flexibility in agreeing to a broad-based, multi-ethnic transitional government of which, needless to say, they would be a very strong component.
People in Afghanistan are tired of war. All factions need to show foresight and political sagacity if the dream of reconciliation is to be accomplished anytime soon.
– Rustam Shah Mohmand is a specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian Affairs. He has served as Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan and also held position of Chief Commissioner Refugees for a decade.
