NEW YORK: The European economy is cooling more than many investors believe, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz SE, said on Monday, warning that the slowdown poses the biggest risk to the market.
In addition, El-Erian, in an interview with Reuters, said that the European Central Bank has only limited tools at its disposal to respond to economic weakness while European governments are not prepared to respond with spending.
“People are underestimating how quickly Europe is slowing,” El-Erian said.
The International Monetary Fund revised down its forecast for euro zone growth to 1.6 percent in January from 1.9 percent three months prior, but El-Erian thinks even the lowered outlook is overly optimistic. El-Erian, the former chief executive of Pimco, the bond investment giant owned by Allianz, expects the euro zone will struggle to deliver even 1 percent growth in gross domestic product this year.
The potential spillover effects from a cooling in Europe and China helped push the US Federal Reserve to signal in January that its interest rate hikes are on hold for the time being, saying that it would be “patient” before making any moves, after raising rates four times in 2018.
But El-Erian, a long-time central bank observer, said a strong US economy may force the Fed to shift its message as soon as by summertime. Allianz managed 1.4 trillion euros in assets at the end of 2018.
“There’s a real chance that the Fed may have to change signals again from patient on rates,” he said. “The domestic economy does not justify patience and flexibility. The domestic economy justifies a continued normalization of monetary policy because the labor markets remain strong, because wages are increasing at 3 percent and because business investment is picking up.”
But although there are real risks from in Europe and China, El-Erian said the extent that the market is pricing in the chance of a Fed rate cut is overdone.
“I suspect that, with continued solid US economic performance, the Fed will be forced to give a more nuanced message about the rates outlook which may in fact conflict with what’s priced by markets currently,” he said.
The market is now pricing in a higher chance of a cut to the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate by January 2020 than for a rise from the current 2.25 to 2.50 percent target.
The Fed will have to signal the possibility of further rate hikes or a longer period of letting its massive bond holdings fall by summertime, El-Erian said.
Despite El-Erian’s optimism on the US economy, he said some stock and bond market prices may have gotten too high. He said he has little conviction that stocks will rise strongly from this point and said it is unlikely that US 10-year Treasury yields move much lower unless barely positive 10-year German bonds fall, too.
“I don’t believe this is the time for massive risk-on,” El-Erian said, adding that said he favors fixed-income securities within the three-to-four-year range.
In looking at Europe, he said that five of the region’s biggest markets — Britain, Germany, France, Spain and Italy — are dealing with internal and continent-wide disagreements from Brexit to fiscal spending that are toxic for growth.
“This team — it wants to play at the highest level, but its five most powerful players are all playing below potential,” El-Erian said.
He called Europe the top risk to global markets, followed by China’s slowdown, central bank policy and trade conflict.
The concern is that central banks are becoming less effective with rates negative in Europe and less appetite for other stimulus policies, from government spending to central banks’ buying assets.
“Central banks realize that the additional round of unconventional policies mean lower benefits, higher costs and risks, so they really want to normalize,” he said. But they may struggle with European governments unable to ramp up spending.
The European Central Bank, which just ended a 2.6 trillion-euro bond-buying program aimed at pushing down borrowing costs, is already contemplating new support measures, with the first possibly coming at its next policy meeting, on Thursday.
Europe’s slowdown is worse than investors imagined, says financial expert
Europe’s slowdown is worse than investors imagined, says financial expert
- The IMF revised down its forecast for euro zone growth to 1.6 % in January from 1.9 % 3 months earlier
- El-Erian expects the euro zone will struggle to deliver even 1% growth in gross domestic product this year
Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan discuss climate action cooperation ahead of COP29
- Two ministers discussed opportunities for work and cooperation between their two countries in the field of climate change
JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman met with Azerbaijan’s Minister of Environment and Natural Resources Mukhtar Babayev on Thursday.
Babayev has also been appointed president of the UN COP29 climate talks which will be held in Baku in November.
During the meeting, the two ministers discussed opportunities for work and cooperation between their two countries in the field of climate change. They also talked about joint efforts to achieve the goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, the Kingdom’s ministry said in a statement.
They reviewed the Kingdom’s efforts and initiatives in dealing with the effects of climate change, such as exploiting renewable energy sources, and managing, reducing and eliminating emissions through the Saudi and Middle East green initiatives.
In addition, the ministers discussed implementing the circular carbon economy approach and its technologies, which was developed by the Kingdom during its G20 presidency and endorsed by leaders, along with other national and regional programs and initiatives.
Saudi Arabia unveils Green Finance Framework in sustainability push
RIYADH: Public and private participation in climate financing in Saudi Arabia is poised to receive a boost with the introduction of the Green Finance Framework.
This initiative, launched by the Ministry of Finance, is aimed at propelling the nation toward its sustainability goals and achieving net-zero emissions by 2060, Saudi Press Agency reported.
The framework is expected to contribute to the efforts aimed at reducing emissions through a circular carbon economy approach, along with positioning Saudi Arabia as a regional leader in sustainable finance.
It was in October 2021 that Saudi Arabia announced its ambitious goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.
With this framework, the Kingdom aims to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 278 million tonnes annually by 2030, aligning with the commitments under the Paris Agreement.
The Paris Agreement is an international treaty on climate change that was produced in 2015 and compels signatories to work toward limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels.
The Kingdom has been spearheading several initiatives including the Saudi Green Initiative to combat the adverse effects of climate change over the past few years.
On March 27, the Kingdom celebrated its first Saudi Green Initiative Day highlighting the importance of fostering a sustainable legacy for future generations.
The celebration was organized under the theme “For Our Today and Their Tomorrow: KSA Together for a Greener Future” and it highlighted the collaboration of more than 80 public and private sector projects that are part of the SGI.
To date, Saudi Arabia has deployed 2.8 gigawatts of renewable energy to the national grid, powering more than 520,000 homes, with additional projects underway to increase capacity.
Moreover, more than 49 million trees and shrubs have been planted throughout the Kingdom since 2021, and extensive land rehabilitation efforts have been undertaken.
Additionally, energy giant Saudi Aramco, in collaboration with the Kingdom’s Ministry of Energy is building a carbon capture and storage hub in Jubail, which will have 9 million tonnes annual storage capacity upon its completion in 2027.
Closing Bell: Saudi main index slips to close at 12,565
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Thursday, losing 42.09 points, or 0.33 percent, to close at 12,565.89.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR10.53 billion ($2.8 billion) as 54 stocks advanced, while 170 retreated.
Similarly, the Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, dropped 385.72 points, or 1.43 percent, to close at 26,622.88. This comes as 20 stocks advanced while as many as 42 retreated.
Meanwhile, the MSCI Tadawul Index rose 7.54 points, or 0.47 percent, to close at 1,599.02.
The best-performing stock of the day was Modern Mills for Food Products Co. The company’s share price surged 9.46 percent to SR68.30.
Other top performers include the Mediterranean and Gulf Insurance and Reinsurance Co. as well as Al Yamamah Steel Industries Co.
On the announcements front, Red Sea International Co. announced its annual consolidated financial result for the period ending Dec. 31.
According to a Tadawul statement, the entity’s revenues reached SR1.37 billion in 2023, reflecting an increase of 241 percent when compared to 2022 figures.
The rise in sales is mainly attributed to the strategic acquisition of a 51 percent stake in Fundamental Installation for Electric Work Co., or First Fix, with the recognition in RSI’s consolidated financial statements starting in the final quarter of the year.
Additionally, the company has tactically increased its focus on enhancing its supply chain and adopting competitive pricing strategies while advancing procurement techniques.
On a similar note, the firm’s net profits during the same period hit SR2.17 million, up from a net loss of SR198 million, which was recorded in the same period in 2022.
This rise is mainly linked to positive impact of the First Fix acquisition, in addition to the improvement in revenues and operating performance.
Moreover, Riyadh Steel Co. has also announced its annual financial results for 2023.
A bourse filing revealed that the firm’s net profit reached SR11.14 million in the period ending on Dec. 31, reflecting an increase of 118.8 percent compared to the corresponding period a year earlier.
The increase in net profit is primarily attributable to a reduction in the cost of revenue and secondarily to a rise in other income in comparison to the previous year.
Furthermore, Al-Baha Investment and Development Co. also announced its annual financial results for the period ending on Dec.31.
According to a Tadawul statement, the company’s net profit hit SR4.94 million in 2023, up from the net loss of SR8.09 million that was recorded in 2022.
The increase was owed to a 39 percent surge in the group’s revenues and reduced financing costs by 73 percent, among other reasons.
Saudi Arabia leads the charge toward energy transition: report
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia is emerging as a proactive leader, pioneering green initiatives to mitigate economic challenges posed by the transformation toward sustainability, according to the International Monetary Fund.
A recent report by the IMF highlighted the intricate dynamics at play and underscored the Gulf Cooperation Council and Saudi Arabia’s strategic positioning in this evolving scenario.
Titled “Key Challenges Faced by Fossil Fuel Exporters during the Energy Transition,” the study discussed climate change mitigation efforts in many fossil fuel exporting countries.
As Saudi Arabia and its GCC counterparts continue to lead the charge toward sustainability, they set a precedent for the global community.
By embracing green initiatives, investing in renewable energy, and fostering economic diversification, these nations are paving the way for a sustainable future, balancing economic prosperity with environmental responsibility.
The report emphasized that the Saudi Green Initiative launched in 2021 aimed at combating climate change and reducing carbon emissions.
It explained: “The Green Initiative is centered around three objectives, including targets for increasing the share of renewable energy in electricity generation up to 50 percent by 2030 and the deployment of circular carbon economy technologies, including carbon capture utilization and storage.”
Key challenges
The IMF stressed the need for economic diversification to effectively mitigate the impact of declining fossil fuel revenues.
Highlighting Saudi Arabia’s progress in economic diversification, the report explained: “The non-oil sector growth has accelerated since 2021, reaching 4.8 percent in 2022 spurred by strong domestic demand, especially in the wholesale, retail trade, construction, and transport sectors.”
Similarly, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE are diversifying their economies away from hydrocarbons, the study added.
In the UAE, non-hydrocarbon GDP was expected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2022, driven by tourism and FIFA World Cup impacts.
Progress on the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements will further boost trade, attract foreign direct investment, and enhance integration with global value chains, according to the report.
The IMF highlighted that in Saudi Arabia, “the share of high-skilled jobs has increased to more than 40 percent in 2022, and female labor force participation doubled in four years to reach 37 percent in 2022.”
In its report, the Washington-based lender said the governments heavily reliant on revenues from fossil fuel exports face challenges in maintaining fiscal sustainability as these revenues decline.
“Countries with significant exposure to the fossil fuel industry may experience higher financial sector risks, including balance sheet effects, asset devaluation, and increased vulnerability to international market fluctuations,” it said.
The report added that transitioning away from fossil fuels may result in job losses in the fossil fuel industry, necessitating retraining programs and support for affected workers.
It called for structural reforms to address all the issues. “Accelerating structural reforms to diversify export bases and develop alternative industries is critical for mitigating the adverse macroeconomic effects of the energy transition,”the report said.
The IMF stressed the need for coordinated global efforts to overcome all these challenges. “Collaborative efforts can help ensure a smooth transition, mitigate transition costs, and support affected countries in diversifying their economies,” the report said.
New service at Jeddah port to boost Saudi-India trade
RIYADH: Saudi and Indian traders are set to benefit from Jeddah Islamic Port’s new service, bolstering trade connectivity between the nations.
The Saudi Ports Authority, also known as Mawani, on Thursday said that Unifeeder, a Danish logistics company, has introduced the “RGI” shipping service at the Saudi port. This initiative connects the Kingdom to Indian checkpoints, facilitating trade between the two nations and offering expedited and secure solutions for exporters and suppliers.
In a statement, Mawani affirmed that this undertaking showcases investors’ confidence in the Kingdom’s terminals, bolsters maritime transport and logistics services, and solidifies Jeddah Islamic Port’s status.
It added that the seaport is the Kingdom’s first dock for exports and imports, and the first re-export point in the Red Sea, with 62 multipurpose berths and a capacity of 130 million tonnes.
The new shipping service connects the Jeddah terminal to the ports of Mundra and Nhava Sheva in India, Jebel Ali in the UAE, and Sokhna in Egypt through regular weekly trips, with a capacity of up to 2,824 twenty-foot equivalent units, Mawani noted.