Slowing of oil production leads experts to predict peak oil demands

Demand is unlikely to fall sharply once oil peaks, the OIES said. (Shutterstock)
Updated 10 December 2018
0

Slowing of oil production leads experts to predict peak oil demands

LONDON: The prospect that global oil demand will gradually slow and eventually peak has created a cottage industry of executives and commentators trying to predict the point at which demand will peak. 

But in a new report from the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, seen by Arab News, the organization argues that this focus seems misplaced.  

“The date at which oil demand will stop growing is highly uncertain and small changes in assumptions can lead to vastly different estimates,” it suggested.  

More importantly, said the OIES, there is little reason to believe that once it does peak, oil demand will fall sharply. 

 

“The world is likely to demand large quantities of oil for many decades to come. Rather, the significance of peak oil is that it signals a shift in paradigm — from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance — and with it is likely to herald a shift to a more competitive market environment.”  

This change in paradigm is expected to pose material challenges for oil-producing economies as they try both to ensure that their oil is produced and consumed, and at the same time diversify their economies.”

OIES said: “It seems likely that many low-cost producers will delay the pace at which they adopt a more competitive “higher volume, lower price” strategy until they reduce the “social costs” of oil production associated with using oil revenues to finance many other aspects of their economy, such as health-care provision or public-sector employment. 

OIES added that it was unlikely that oil prices would stabilize around a level in which many of the world’s major oil-producing economies were running large and persistent fiscal deficits.  

“As such, the average level of oil prices over the next few decades is likely to depend more on developments in the social cost of production across the major oil producing economies than on the physical cost of extraction,” said the OIES paper.

Decoder

Peak oil

This is the point, in theory, at which the maximum rate of crude extraction is reached and then goes into terminal decline.


US energy secretary meets Saudi counterpart after OPEC cuts

Updated 10 December 2018
0

US energy secretary meets Saudi counterpart after OPEC cuts

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s energy minister held talks Monday with US Energy Secretary Rick Perry, after the Kingdom and its allies defied US pressure to cut oil production in a bid to prop up prices.
They discussed the “state of the oil market” and energy cooperation between the two countries during a meeting in eastern Dhahran city, the minister, Khalid Al-Falih, said on Twitter.
Perry tweeted that he discussed the need for “open, free, and fair markets with the Saudis.”
OPEC members and 10 other oil producing nations, including Russia, on Friday agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day from January in a bid to reverse recent falls in prices.
The decision came even as US President Donald Trump demanded that the cartel boost output in order to push prices down.
But Al-Falih shrugged off the pressure last week, saying “we don’t need permission from anyone to cut” production.
The US “is not in a position to tell us what to do,” he told reporters ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna.
Last week, for the first time in decades, the United States — which is not a member of OPEC — was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.
It was the latest sign of how the shale boom has lifted the US standing on global petroleum markets, prompting talk of “energy dominance” by Trump.
Perry’s visit to Dhahran came as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman unveiled state oil giant Aramco’s plan for a new energy megaproject in the area known as the King Salman Energy Park (SPARK).
The energy park is expected to attract an initial investment of $1.6 billion, Aramco said.