Russia stakes a claim for leading Afghan peace talks
After persistent efforts, Russia last week managed to bring together all major stakeholders, including the Taliban, the US and representatives of an Afghan government-appointed peace council, at a conference in Moscow aimed at promoting a negotiated settlement to end the conflict in Afghanistan.
The so-called “Moscow Format” meeting may not achieve its desired objectives because the US and Afghanistan are not fully convinced about the Russian initiative’s utility in view of the direct talks that Washington initiated with Taliban in July this year. Nevertheless, it showed the success of Russian diplomacy, as all the invited countries, along with the Taliban, attended the multilateral conference and expressed support for a peaceful resolution of the Afghan issue.
Russia, by hosting the conference, reminded the world and particularly the US that it has the ambition and is capable of playing the role of peacemaker in a conflict as old and complicated as the one in Afghanistan. Russia also sent a message that it cannot remain oblivious to the situation in Afghanistan, in particular the presence of Daesh and the record Afghan opium poppy production and flourishing narcotics trade.
Russia, by hosting the conference, reminded the world and particularly the US that it has the ambition and is capable of playing the role of peacemaker in a conflict as old and complicated as the one in Afghanistan.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
There were quite a few firsts observed at the Moscow Format consultation process.
It was the first time that the US had attended a conference on Afghanistan hosted by Russia. Last year, it stayed away from an event in Moscow that aimed at providing a platform for regional consultation on making Afghanistan peaceful and stable. Though the American representation at the recent Moscow conference was of a low-level, as an official from the US Embassy in Russia attended and observed the proceedings, it still signaled a change of heart as Washington did not boycott the event.
Another first was the participation of a five-member Taliban delegation led by its Qatar-based political council head Sher Mohammed Abbas Stanakzai. The Taliban had never before attended such a high-level international conference where it was the only non-state group interacting with officials from 12 countries, including global and regional powers. Though Russia has designated the Taliban as a terrorist group, this did not prevent it from hosting the Taliban delegation that included at least one member who is on the UN Security Council’s sanctioned list. The Taliban got further international recognition through this conference and also boosted its position by making gains on the battlefield.
Yet another first was the presence of Indian officials under the same roof as a Taliban delegation. Two former diplomats, Amar Sinha and T.C.A. Raghavan, were sent to attend the event in a “non-official” capacity. However, India ensured its representatives would not hold talks with the Taliban delegation, even though they shared the conference table and listened to each other’s speeches. It is unclear if the Taliban would have interacted with Indian delegates if there was a chance to do so, but the fact remains that they are poles apart in the context of their views about Afghanistan’s future.
As the Indian media reported, New Delhi coordinated with Kabul before deciding to attend the Moscow event. In fact, the stances of the Afghan and Indian governments, now close allies, were similar as Kabul also sent a delegation of its High Peace Council instead of Foreign Ministry officials. In a way, the positions taken by Kabul and New Delhi were meant to distance their governments from the conference, as it was not really an Afghan-led and owned peace process. At the same time though, Afghanistan and India did not want to reject the Russian invitation altogether, as they had no intention of annoying Moscow. Besides, the conference had its own significance as it was focused on issues of peace and stability in Afghanistan.
Other participants at the Moscow Format talks had readily accepted the Russian invitation as they had also attended previous Russia-hosted events focused on the Afghan peace process. China, Iran, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have been active participants in the regional consultations on Afghanistan being organized by Russia since 2017. Uzbekistan hosted its own Afghanistan conference in Tashkent in March 2018 and also later invited a Taliban delegation to explore playing a role in facilitating Afghan government-Taliban peace talks.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in his inaugural conference speech, mentioned creating favorable conditions for direct talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban and tackling the threat posed by Daesh, which was bidding to “turn Afghanistan into a springboard for its expansion in Central Asia with support from foreign sponsors.”
Achieving these specific Russian objectives through the Moscow Format won’t be easy due to the Taliban’s refusal to engage in direct peace talks with the Afghan government and the different approaches adopted by Russia and the US for tackling Daesh, but the Russians are expected to continue to pursue their goals in coordination with their neighbors and allies.
• Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst. He was the first to interview Taliban founder Mullah Mohammed Omar.
Twitter: @rahimyusufzai1
