Afghans must defy Taliban threats to vote in new parliament
Despite insecurity and political uncertainty, Afghanistan is poised to hold its sixth election in the post-Taliban period on Saturday, when an estimated 8.8 million voters will decide the makeup of the 250-member lower house of parliament.
In fact, the voting for the Wolesi Jirga (People’s Assembly) will herald an unprecedented six-month “election season,” as the next presidential election is scheduled to be held on April 20, 2019.
Doubts have been expressed that the beleaguered, disunited national unity government of President Ashraf Ghani and Chief Executive Officer Abdullah Abdullah can manage to peacefully organize two major elections in this short period of time, while also ensuring free, fair and transparent polls. The lack of credibility of the previous elections — three presidential and two parliamentary — in the 17 years since the fall of Taliban regime as a result of the post-9/11 US invasion of Afghanistan has fueled concerns about possible rigging in the coming polls.
It is remarkable that the parliamentary elections are being held at all, as there had been uncertainty until recently whether the polls would be held in time. The lower house of parliament was elected in 2010 for a five-year term, but its life was extended through presidential decrees. After almost a three-and-a-half year delay, the polls are finally being organized amid hopes that Afghanistan’s nascent democracy will gradually empower its citizens. Some of the reasons for the delayed polls have yet to be overcome, as the security situation has deteriorated and the proposed electoral reforms haven’t been fully agreed and implemented.
There has been an escalation in violence since April 22, when the Independent Election Commission (IEC) announced Oct. 20 as the date for holding the parliamentary elections. On the same day, the Taliban announced the start of the group’s annual spring offensive. On Oct. 8, the Taliban threatened that the security forces protecting polling centers would be targeted to disrupt the “bogus US-sponsored” election process.
It is obvious the Taliban wants to keep voters away from the polling stations. In past elections, the group generally refrained from attacking polling centers as it meant causing harm to voters and losing whatever public support it had. However, candidates and notables remained a target.
The Taliban won’t be able to mobilize enough fighters to breach security and undertake attacks throughout the country. The government has deployed 54,776 security personnel to protect polling stations and can also depend on the US-led NATO forces for help.
After almost a three-and-a-half year delay, the polls are finally being organized amid hopes that Afghanistan’s nascent democracy will gradually empower its citizens.
Rahimullah Yusufzai
The Khorasan chapter of Daesh also claimed responsibility for certain recent polls-related terrorist attacks, though the more powerful Taliban poses a bigger threat to the election process.
Though voter registration centers faced early attacks, as 86 civilians were killed and 185 injured in the first month after the announcement of the parliamentary vote in mid-April, the targets for militants increased when election campaigning got underway and candidates started holding rallies. Suicide bombers killed several candidates, including prominent ones like Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, who had mobilized fighters to challenge the Taliban in the group’s stronghold of Helmand Province. According to the IEC, at least 10 candidates have been killed to date, but the number of participants killed at election rallies is much higher.
Though candidates started restricting their movements due to security threats, the electioneering didn’t stop. The formal election campaign began on Sept. 28, but candidates had been campaigning for months. The candidates displayed colorful banners and posters across Kabul and in other places in a bid to outdo rivals.
Still, the election process has had its share of controversies and challenges. The IEC earlier announced that the number of registered voters was 9.5 million, but this went down to 8.8 million when more than 600,000 were disqualified due to duplication, lack of proper documentation or being underage. It also quietly dropped plans to hold the district council elections along with the parliamentary polls due to logistical issues and canceled polling in Ghazni Province on account of security concerns. Insecurity has also caused the closure of many polling centers. This means that voters in Taliban-controlled districts and in the few partially under Daesh influence won’t be able to vote.
To prevent vote rigging, the IEC belatedly decided to use 22,000 biometric devices at polling stations. However, this caught the candidates and voters unawares. Though the IEC insisted that the use of biometrics was as simple as using mobile phones, there is still concern whether the voting will be smooth in the conflict-hit country, which has a low literacy rate and political and ethnic polarization.
The complex electoral system is also a matter of concern. The number of candidates is 2,565, including 417 women, but all are contesting as independents due to the absence of political parties in parliament. In Kabul alone, 804 candidates including 119 women are competing for just 33 seats and confusing voters. The kith and kin of the ruling elite and former warlords enjoy an edge in the polls. Still, the parliamentary vote is a good opportunity for war-weary Afghans to hold those who have remained in power accountable.
• Rahimullah Yusufzai is a senior political and security analyst based in Pakistan.
