India’s growing military capabilities are overwhelmingly poised against Pakistan
With an aim to bolster its military might, India signed the $5 billion defense deal with Russia on October 5 – a move that could supplement the modernization process of its armed forces. While its reformation into a revamped military power solidifies India’s defense system, it also amplifies the insecurity of Pakistan, compelling the latter to respond to New Delhi’s ploy, in order to sustain the strategic equilibrium between them.
The competition to outdo each other in the devastating arms race has seen both states manufacture indigenous weapons and acquire state of the art military hardware from advanced nations. Currently, India is at an advantage due to its consistent economic growth, strategic partnership with the United States and defense cooperation with Russia and Israel.
Pakistan, on the other hand, is lagging behind because of the fragile nature of its economy and its decreasing strategic significance in America’s grander scheme of things – something that was cemented by the cancellation of military aid and the suspension of the coalition support fund for Islamabad by President Donald Trump’s administration this year.
According to the Indian military’s “operational directive”, the armed forces have to acquire capabilities that would help them eclipse Pakistan and deter China in case of a war. The possibility of another war between India and Pakistan cannot be ruled out due to New Delhi’s ambitious policies to establish its hegemony in the region, its cyclopean purchase of conventional weapons, a modernized nuclear arsenal and its determination to use surgical strikes against Pakistan.
Pakistan’s diplomatic machinery has yet to achieve the international support which could help it respond to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’ attempts at warmongering. On September 23, Indian Army Chief General Bipin Rawat threatened to conduct a surgical strike against Pakistan, with the government taking it a step further by celebrating September 29 as Surgical Strikes Day – clearly a move to appease and muster the support of anti-Pakistan forced ahead of the state and national elections next year.
Additionally, the deal with Russia to acquire the S-400 long range Surface to Air Missile System could be seen as yet another attempt by Modi to divert attention from a corruption scandal – involving 36 French Rafale fighter jets – that has been plaguing his government. Russia’s willingness to sell the missile system -- even as it accounts for 62 per cent of India’s defense imports -- has thus far worked in pacifying the opposition parties that were until now criticizing the government and demanding the premier’s resignation.
The finalization of the Russian deal and an expected purchase of the American F-35 -- advanced stealth-strike jet fighters with fifth-generation airstrike technology -- might shift the conventional balance of power in favor of New Delhi without denting the balance of terror, which is prevailing due to the nuclear capabilities of both countries. India has realized, with utmost frustration, that without destabilizing Pakistan’s nuclear strength, bullying it into coercion is impossible.
Pakistan is lagging behind India because of the fragile nature of its economy and its decreasing strategic significance in America’s grander scheme of things.
Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
Pakistan’s decision-makers view this as a favorable development and through a classic hedging strategy are pursuing multiple cooperative relationships with the world’s super powers. In recent years, Islamabad’s relationships with Moscow have improved to a large extent, while those with China have broadened.
Relations between Pakistan and the United States, however, continue to remain complicated. Islamabad has been struggling to reach an understanding with the Trump administration but has been unable to comply with or make US’ Afghanistan and Asia strategies work in its favor. Washington’s increasing strategic ties with New Delhi are, therefore, a considerable cause for concern for Islamabad.
While Pakistan’s response to India’s military threats are largely reactive and defensive, diplomacy has played an important role in enhancing its capabilities through a strategic alliance with the US or by acting as its frontline state against the Russians during the cold war and later in the war against terrorism.
Pakistan’s nuclear weapons -- particularly its cruise and ballistic missiles -- play a very important role in deterring the threats posed by India. On October 8, Pakistan successfully conducted the training launch of the Ghauri Missile System which boasts a range of up to 1,300 kilometers and can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. According to a statement released by Inter-Services Public Relations, the launch “consolidates Pakistan’s nuclear capability which is aimed at peace and stability through a credible deterrence regime”.
India’s burgeoning capabilities are overwhelmingly poised against Pakistan. Due to its military build-up --emboldened by American, Russian, European and Israeli support – it is less willing to act in a rational manner and restart a dialogue with Pakistan. Islamabad, therefore, has to keep its ears to the ground and maintain an equally effective defense mechanism of its own.
• Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected]