Pakistan’s stock market keeps losing amid uncertainty over external funding

Pakistan’s stock market remains in a tight spot due to uncertainty. (Reuters photo)
Updated 09 October 2018
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Pakistan’s stock market keeps losing amid uncertainty over external funding

  • PM Imran Khan’s administration remains indecisive about availing IMF program to steer the country out of financial trouble
  • “In case of availing IMF program a big disaster would be knocking at our doors”, says Dr Shahida Wizarat

KARACHI: Amid the new Pakistan government ‘s indecision about the International Monetary Fund’s bailout program and prevailing discourse about the program’s pros and cons, experts have warned against the economic consequences of the program, terming it “a disaster for the country.”

On Sunday Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan hinted at approaching the IMF, saying: “We may approach the IMF for support to the country’s financial problems,” but he insisted on looking toward other countries: “We have requested three countries to deposit funds in the State Bank of Pakistan that would boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves.”

As stakeholders look for a categorical position of Khan’s administration in going or not going to the IMF for financial assistance or the arrangement of funds from alternative resources, the country’s stock market remains in a tight spot due to uncertainty.

The Pakistan Stock market PSX on Monday recorded a decline of 1,328 or 3.39 percent, the biggest in five months. “The Pakistan market was down by more than 3 percent due to margin calls and lack of clarity on the IMF or other funding,” Muhammad Sohail, CEO of Topline Securities, told Arab News.

Ahsan Mehanti, chief executive of Arif Habib Group, said: “Reports of record PKR1.55 trillion pending circular debt, foreign outflows, uncertainty over the outcome of FATF compliance review meetings on action plans, a record fall in foreign reserves, fears over likely IMF policy measures on a further hike in gas and power tariffs, a surge in interest rates and rupee depreciation have played a catalyst role in the record fall.”

Sohail added: “On May 29, 2017 market capitalization of the country’s stock market was $99 billion, which has come down to $63 billion.”

The country’s stock market’s losing streak is due to the lack of clarity from the government’s indecision, but economists fear a worse economic scenario if the country avails itself of the IMF program.

 “In the case of taking advantage of  the program, a big disaster would be knocking at our doors,” Dr. Shahida Wizarat, a senior economist, told Arab News.

During the recent visit of IMF’s staff mission, the fund had proposed Pakistan adopt policy measures including: 1. A flexible exchange rate 2. Monetary policy tightening 3. Gas and power tariff hikes.

Experts believe the IMF program will come up with harsh conditions that will largely impair the country’s growth. “In the case of a flexible exchange rate regime and a further utility price hike, the country would have to face massive inflationary pressure that would trigger unemployment and poverty,” Wizarat said.

“In the case of a flexible exchange regime the national currency, the Pak rupee, would further depreciate to around PKR140 against the US dollar from the current PKR127. That would trigger inflation,” said Muzamil Aslam, senior economist and CEO of EFG-Hermes Pakistan.

Dr. Ikram ul-Haq, an expert on legal and economic matters, said: “The impact will be negative. Rupee devaluation will make imported goods expensive and increase inflation, which will erode purchasing power. Not only will investment and growth suffer but exports will become more competitive due to the enhanced cost of imported ingredients. More expensive energy will have disastrous effects for industries as well as for domestic consumers.”

Pakistan’s previous government had set a growth rate target of 6.2 percent for the current fiscal year but international and local institutions predict that the country will not be able to achieve this. The Asian Development Bank has forecast 4.8 percent and the State Bank of Pakistan expects 5 percent GDP growth.

“Historically, Pakistan has achieved 3 to 3.5 percent growth rate in the first two to three years whenever we availed the IMF program,” Aslam said, adding: “It would be a big achievement if we maintain growth at 3.5 percent.”

However, some economists still believe that the country would be able to maintain the current growth rate. “As the government is expecting inflows from friendly countries, Saudi Arabia and China, and inflow of investment in the CPEC project, the country may achieve 5 percent growth rate,” Dr. Bilal Ahmed, an economic analyst, said.

Pakistan’s industrialists are also wary of the current economic trends over the unclear stand of country’s leadership. “In this situation our problems are increasing. We see the future of industry as being bleak as investors are trying hard to sustain growth momentum,” Syed Mazhar Ali Nasir, senior vice president of the Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry, told Arab News.

Experts believe that the devaluation of currency and a gas and power tariff hike will lead to the closure of industries and ultimately would result in mass unemployment. “Poverty will lead to an increasing crime rate and the tall claims of 10 million jobs and five million house would not materialize,” Wizarat warned. 


Magrabi opens new complex in Makkah

Updated 6 sec ago
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Magrabi opens new complex in Makkah

RIYADH: With a new branch in Makkah, Magrabi Hospitals and Centers are expanding to more Saudi cities to meet the growing demand for specialized ophthalmological and dentistry care.

Minister of Health Fahad Al-Jalajel inaugurated the medical complex and one-day surgery center in the holy city, accompanied by Magrabi Hospitals and Centers CEO Mutasim Alireza, the Group’s Deputy CEO and Cheif Operating Officer Abdulrahman Barzangi, and several officials and dignitaries.

Al-Jalajel underscored that the opening reflects the Kingdom’s commitment to enhancing the quality of its healthcare services and transitioning toward a more comprehensive and integrated healthcare system.


UAE records 64% surge in trademark registrations

Updated 6 min 27 sec ago
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UAE records 64% surge in trademark registrations

RIYADH: The UAE recorded an annual 64 percent surge in trademark registrations, amounting to 4,610 in the first quarter of 2024, official data showed.

The figures, released by the nation’s Ministry of Economy, reveal the notable increase from 2,813 signups in the same period of 2023. 

March emerged as a particularly prolific period, with 2,018 new brands reported.

The trademarks registered during this time span a wide range of key sectors, including smart technology, transportation, food and beverage and pharmaceuticals as well as medical devices, finance, real estate, and more. 

The preceding months of January and February collectively accounted for 2,592 trademarks, further highlighting sustained growth and momentum in registrations.

As the country continues to position itself as a global business hub, trademark registrations serve as a crucial indicator of economic vitality and innovation-driven growth.

In a release on X, the ministry noted on April 17 that it has: “Worked on developing the trademark registration service, using the latest technologies and innovative solutions to achieve higher efficiency and better interaction with clients.”

The UAE’s adherence to international treaties and agreements further strengthens its trademark registration regime. 

By adhering to agreements like the Paris Convention for the Protection of Industrial Property and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights or TRIPS, the UAE facilitates international trademark registration and enforcement, empowering businesses to broaden their operations across borders.

The nation has further established mechanisms for enforcing trademark rights and combating infringement. 

These include civil remedies, such as damages, injunctions, and seizure of infringing goods, as well as criminal penalties for trademark counterfeiting and piracy.


Saudi EXIM Bank inks deal with Swiss counterpart to elevate trade exchange 

Updated 34 min 51 sec ago
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Saudi EXIM Bank inks deal with Swiss counterpart to elevate trade exchange 

RIYADH: Saudi EXIM Bank and its Swiss counterpart have signed an agreement to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil exports, enhancing their global market competitiveness. 

In an X post following the deal, the Saudi lender stated that the reinsurance agreement with the Swiss Export Credit Agency was signed in Zurich. 

This development follows Saudi EXIM’s signing of reinsurance treaties with a consortium of global reinsurers led by Swiss Re in Zurich. These agreements will expand global insurance operations in collaboration with the world’s largest reinsurers and provide insurance coverage to support the growth of Saudi exporters in global markets. 

The trade relationship between Saudi Arabia and Switzerland has been robust, with exports from the Kingdom to the European nation totaling $810.67 million in 2023, according to the UN’s database on international trade.  

The Kingdom’s primary exports to Switzerland included pearls, precious metals, and aluminum, valued at $587.57 million and $139.39 million, respectively.  

On the other hand, Swiss exports to Saudi Arabia amounted to $6.77 billion in 2023. 

In October 2023, Saad Al-Khalb, CEO of EXIM Bank, told Arab News that the main mandate of the financial institution is to support the Kingdom’s economy and flow of goods, trades, infrastructure and long-term projects. 

In January, the Saudi lender also signed an agreement with its US counterpart to boost cooperation and help strengthen economic and trade relations between the two countries.  

The total value of credit facilities implemented by the EXIM Bank in 2023 reached $4.39 billion, exceeding its annual target by 33 percent, the Saudi Press Agency reported. 

This figure represents 5.2 percent of the total financial arrangements for the Kingdom’s non-oil outbound trade. 


March data reveals slight dip in Dubai’s inflation

Updated 47 min 46 sec ago
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March data reveals slight dip in Dubai’s inflation

RIYADH: Dubai’s inflation witnessed a slight decrease in March, dropping to 3.34 percent compared to 3.36 percent in February, according to official data.

The decline in inflation is attributed to lower prices of specific goods and services, notably in the food and transportation sectors.

Dubai’s Consumer Price Index rose to 110.77 points in March, compared to 110.50 points in the previous month, due to the rise in prices of key expenditure groups and services, including insurance and financial services by 8.67 percent, housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel by 6.34 percent, and education by 3.62 percent.

However, despite the overall decrease in annual inflation, some sectors experienced price hikes. These areas included transportation, which witnessed a 1.75 percent increase, and housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel, which saw a 0.58 percent increase.

Speaking to Arab News, economist and policy adviser Mahmoud Khairy highlighted that inflation affects sectors differently based on various factors such as economic structure and market dynamics.

“The most prominent and immediate effect of inflation is on consumption, potentially reducing consumers’ purchasing power and altering spending patterns,” he said.

Khairy also emphasized the sensitivity of the housing and real estate markets to inflationary changes in the Gulf Cooperation Council region. 

“Construction costs and property values may increase which will put extra burden on financing needs,” he added.

In addition to the decrease in inflation, food and beverage prices in Dubai in March decreased by 0.36 percent, along with drops in furniture prices by 0.06 percent and information and communication by 0.02 percent. 

The cost of restaurants and hotels also decreased by 2.15 percent, while prices of insurance and financial services lowered by only 0.08 percent.

In neighboring Saudi Arabia, inflation also fell in March, registering a rate of 1.6 percent compared to 1.8 percent the previous month. 

Shifts in the food and beverage sector primarily drove the decline.

Khairy explained that inflation expectations influence consumer behavior, similar to preparing for a weather forecast.

“When people expect prices to rise, they often rush to buy things sooner to avoid paying more later,” he said.

Investors closely monitor inflation, tweaking portfolios based on their predictions. Similarly, policymakers and central banks rely on inflation expectations to steer the economy, akin to checking weather forecasts for planning. 

Earlier last week, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva remarked on the importance of central bankers meticulously adjusting their interest rate reduction strategies in response to incoming data. 

Regarding challenges and opportunities for GCC economies, Khairy noted the reliance on oil revenues, currency pegs to the US dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as factors influencing inflation and economic stability.

“Disruptions to global supply chains due to geopolitical tensions or trade disputes can lead to supply shortages and price increases, contributing to inflationary pressures,” he said.

The World Bank said in a report that “GCC countries are small open economies with high dependence on international trade which makes them vulnerable to global shocks in addition to domestic ones.” 

Khairy also emphasized the importance of economic diversification efforts and strategic infrastructure investments to mitigate the impact of external shocks on inflation and promote overall financial stability in the region.

He concluded that higher inflation poses challenges for government budgets and financing.

“As prices increase, governments face a higher fiscal deficit to achieve just the same level of consumption and investment. On the other hand, inflation is always associated with higher interest rates which increases the cost of financing for government debt,” he said.


Madinah airport claims top spot in Middle East regional ranking 

Updated 57 min 7 sec ago
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Madinah airport claims top spot in Middle East regional ranking 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Prince Mohammad bin Abdulaziz International Airport in Madinah has been awarded the title of the best regional airbase in the Middle East for 2024. 

The recognition was announced during the Skytrax World Airport Awards, held at the Passenger Terminal EXPO in Frankfurt. 

Meanwhile, Qatar’s Hamad International Airport claimed the title of the world’s best aviation hub for the year, while Singapore Changi Airport, previously named the airport of the year in 2023 and a winner on 12 occasions in the past, secured the second position in the global ranking. 

Changi Airport also earned recognition as the top airbase in Asia and for delivering the world’s best immigration services, as per Skytrax. 

Meanwhile, Seoul Incheon Airport, advancing to third place in the global survey rankings, was awarded the title of the world’s most family-friendly terminal for 2024.