A divided opposition
The unraveling of the opposition alliance has cleared the way for the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to win the presidential election in September. With a last-ditch attempt to field a joint candidate having failed, the opposition vote will now be divided between the two aspirants for the coveted post. Even a joint opposition candidate would have stood no chance of beating the PTI nominee as the ruling party has a comfortable lead in the electoral college.
While the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has fielded veteran politician Aitzaz Ahsan, the coalition led by the Pakistan Muslim League — Nawaz (PML-N) has decided to back Maulana Fazalur Rehman, leader of the right-wing Jamiat ul Islam (JUI).
The crafty cleric, who suffered the worst humiliation of his political career in the recent parliamentary election, has been the main architect of the opposition alliance. His presidential aspirations were doomed from the outset after the PPP refused to withdraw its candidate. Although the president is only a ceremonial head of state, the expected victory of Dr. Arif Alvi will complete the PTI’s control over all leverages of power.
The cracks in the coalition started emerging days after its formation, when the PPP refused to vote for PML-N President Shabaz Sharif in the election for prime minister. Shabaz was a joint opposition candidate against PTI leader Imran Khan.
The disagreement over a joint presidential candidate seems to have thrown the opposition into further disarray, to the delight of the PTI government, which has a very thin majority and whose survival depends on the support of disparate regional groups.
The disagreement over a joint presidential candidate seems to have thrown the opposition into further disarray, to the delight of the PTI government. The widening gulf between the two biggest opposition parties, the PML-N and PPP, has given the government much-needed breathing space.
Zahid Hussain
The widening gulf between the two biggest opposition parties, the PML-N and PPP, has given the government much-needed breathing space. The opposition predicament seems to have worsened with demoralization creeping into PML-N ranks. The former ruling party has not been the same since the conviction and imprisonment of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam.
The PML-N benches appear subdued under Shabaz’s uncharismatic and lackluster guardianship. It is questionable whether Shabaz, who has been eulogized in the past for his administrative skills as chief minister of Punjab province, can provide the kind of leadership that the party needs in such testing times.
His woes have been exacerbated by the PML-N being torn between the two different narratives espoused by himself and Nawaz, who continues to cast his shadow on the party from prison. Although the PML-N remains a formidable political force in Punjab, the party is finding it extremely difficult to maintain unity in the face of a crisis.
There is more zing in the PPP’s ranks, and with good reason. The party has returned to the National Assembly with more seats. More exciting is Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari making his debut in Parliament. The scion of Pakistan’s once most powerful political dynasty made his mark in the election campaign, trying to lift the PPP from the abyss.
Bilawal may not yet have the charisma and political acumen of his illustrious mother and grandfather, but he has shown a degree of maturity missing in many other leaders. However, living under the shadow of his crafty father, former President Asif Zardari, it may not be that easy for Bilawal to take full charge. Asif is back in the National Assembly after decades, and will certainly be in the driving seat when it comes to the PPP’s policy matters.
It is evident that the PPP has far greater stakes in the new order than any other opposition group, with the party maintaining its stranglehold in Sindh province. The PPP’s increase in the number of seats in the National Assembly has given it greater space for political maneuvering.
– Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington.
Twitter: @hidhussain
