How Pakistan's leadership-centered parties get votes
How people vote depends on the nature of a society, particularly its social structures, demographic characteristics, social development and democratic depth. What is therefore important to understand about voting behavior is the general social and political environment of a country.
One may take it as a sub-structure of electoral politics, the defining feature of how and why people vote and what determines their preferences at the polling booth. There are unique features in each country that make theories of voting behavior devised in the light of empirical evidence from the mature democracies largely inadequate to explain attitudes toward voting.
The universal templates of voting behavior must be examined in the light of specific social and political conditions of a society.
The first and foremost is the party base, the core constituency of each party that it has cultivated throughout its existence. The base of a party might be attracted to its leadership, ideology, vision or faith in its promise.
For instance, the religious parties in Pakistan and other developing societies have created a constituency of social support by espousing religious principles, building national identity around religion and protecting traditional, cultural and social heritage. They have support among the religious and conservative sections of the society. The religious constituency and its size depend on what role a particular religion plays in politics.
In the case of Pakistan, religion is an important marker of the identity of individuals as well as social groups. Religious conservatism and faith in the agenda of the religious parties may be one of the important influences on voters, largely in the urban Punjab and Sindh regions and overall in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
The political party system in Pakistan is not well developed, yet we have seen expansion of party-based voting clusters during the past four general elections. Every ethnic, mainstream and religious party has its specific social constituency of support. This type of constituency votes according to party symbol, and not by who is in the contest.
Generally, incumbency is a favorable factor for the parties and their candidates that have been in power. In the case of Pakistan and many developing countries, incumbent parties contesting elections counter many challenges. The voters judge them more by what they have failed to deliver than what they have delivered.
Quite often the political parties themselves are responsible for the voter frustration. By promising too much they raise the level of expectations of people too high, which they are unable to satisfy because of limited institutional capacity and the poor resource base of the country.
Quite often the political parties themselves are responsible for the voter frustration. By promising too much they raise the level of expectations of people too high, which they are unable to satisfy because of limited institutional capacity and the poor resource base of the country.
Rasul Bakhsh Rais
People will judge very harshly what the PML-N has delivered in Punjab, the PPP in Sindh and the PTI in KP. Performance is an issue. In the past the political parties could take the support of their voting blocs for granted. Knowing the mood of the electorates, the parties have campaigned on "achievements." A good number of people will look at what is on the ground and close to them when casting their votes.
Honest, credible, trustworthy and visionary leadership can turn the electoral outcome in a party's favor. It is true of every democracy, but more so in societies such as Pakistan where waiting for "messiahs" is a cultural trait. In times of national crises like ours, people look towards strong, charismatic leaders. The parties and their media men and women cultivate their leaders as "deliverers."
For this reason, the parties in Pakistan are not ideology or program-centered; they are leadership-centered. The names, images, legacies and promise of three leaders — Asif Ali Zardari, Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan — will ring strong in the minds of voters when they stamp the ballot papers today.
Electoral narratives that we have seen through aggressive electioneering by every party, from religious and ethnic to mainstream, touch on the human psychological and material needs. The consistent themes of sacrifices, suffering, victimhood of the party and leaders, religious symbolism, emotive issues of ethnic identity, and the playing out of "injustice" by all the groups, are meant to manipulate voters' emotions.
Although such narratives constitute an evasive strategy to deflect attention away from corruption, poor governance and many failures while in power, they are carefully crafted to win the sympathy and support of the unsuspecting voters. It works in the social climate of Pakistan.
Finally, we shouldn’t miss out on the local issues of development or underdevelopment, the presence or absence of the contestants in the constituencies during the previous tenure, the level of material patronage extended and the balancing of biradari voting blocs as important variables in the electoral outcome.
• Rasul Bakhsh Rais is professor of political science in the Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, LUMS, Lahore. His latest book is “Islam, Ethnicity and Power Politics: Constructing Pakistan’s National Identity (Oxford University Press, 2017). Twitter: @RasulRais
