Sharif’s end game
The conviction of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter on graft charges has dealt further humiliation to the former prime minister who was removed from office by the country’s top court one year ago for perjury. An anti corruption court has sentenced Sharif to ten-year prison and ordered confiscation of the family’s London properties. The court has also slapped seven-year jail sentence to Maryam Nawaz who was being promoted as his heir apparent. Both are in London and it is not yet clear that they would return to the country and face jail sentence.
This is the first time in Pakistan’s history that a former prime minister has been convicted for corruption. The conviction may bring an end to the political career of arguably the most powerful political leader and three-time prime minister and raises question about the political future of the Sharif family dynasty who has occupied Pakistan’s political center stage for more than three decades whether in or out of power.
Surely, Nawaz Sharif has gone through such trials and tribulations in the past too when his government was ousted twice, once by a military-backed constitutional coup and the other by direct military intervention that sent him into exile. Each time he returned to power with a much greater electoral mandate.
But any hope of the former prime minister return to political center stage now seems improbable after the conviction. The conviction of Maryam has ended her dream of taking over her father’s mantle too. The court has also declared Sharif’s two sons as absconder.
The unprecedented judicial action against the ousted prime minister is seen as a watershed moment for the country’s democratic evaluation and has been described by some analysts as a step forward in efforts towards establishing the rule of law. Notwithstanding the skepticism over the judgment perceived as radical, the action came from within the system and not outside the constitutional framework.
It is evident that the baton of leadership of Pakistan Muslim League(N) has now be passed on to younger brother Shahbaz Sharif who is a former chief minister of the country’s most powerful province of Punjab, thus maintaining the dynastic hold over power at least for now. The younger Sharif has a reputation of being a good administrator but not a crowed puller who could mobilize the voters.
But many analysts believe that he may not have the charisma and the authority of his disgraced brother to lead the PML (N) to victory in parliamentary elections scheduled to be held on July 25. It is evident that the long absence of Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam from the country has seriously affected the PML-N election campaign. The internal squabble over ticket allocations and the defections have caused creeping demoralisation among the supporters. There is no evidence of any sympathy wave for Nawaz Sharif sweeping across Punjab that could enhance the party’s electoral fortunes.
Perhaps, the most daunting challenge confronting the party leadership after the legal setback is how to maintain unity in its rank and file The latest defections, engineered or otherwise, have virtually wiped out the PML-N’s prospects in the coming elections in south Punjab and made it more difficult for the party to defend its bastion along the Grand Trunk Road. The dice is now more heavily loaded against the former ruling party.
Surely, the PML-N candidates’ exodus has given a further boost to the PTI that has put its entire stake into the turncoats jumping onto its bandwagon. The PTI has gained momentum by taking advantage of the defections from the PML (N).
Moreover, the reported rift between the Sharif brothers has further compounded the party’s predicament. The PML-N paradox has been exposed by the two opposite narratives espoused by the brothers. While the elder Sharif and his daughter have shown no change in their hardline confrontationist position, the younger sibling has taken an increasingly conciliatory path. In fact, Shahbaz has publicly challenged Nawaz’s stance on the security establishment being behind his ouster and undermining his party.
As party president, Shahbaz is seeking a vote on the performance of his government in the province rather than on the anti-establishment agenda being pursued by the elder Sharif. The widening policy gulf is also illustrated by Shahbaz’s recent TV interviews where he stressed on the formation of a national government, even if the PML-N won the elections and opening negotiations for a new political charter involving all stakeholders including the security agencies in order to face the internal and external challenges faced by the country.
Nawaz Sharif’s conviction may bring an end to a political chapter in the country’s political history. It remains to be seen whether the party stays united now to face the daunting challenge.
• Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington DC, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington DC.
Twitter: @hidhussain
