Unrestrained missile proliferation in South Asia threatens peace
India and Pakistan have been developing, testing and operationalizing missiles of various classes and capabilities. Both claim these missiles — whether conventional or nuclear — are imperative for the defense of their sovereignty.
The military planners in both states consider ballistic and cruise missiles for dissuasion, deterrence and actual conduct of operations. Nevertheless, the unrestrained proliferation of these combat platforms increases the risks to the stability of South Asia.
The focus of New Delhi and Islamabad is currently on precision standoff strikes in real time. Missiles utilization is presently undertaken from all four dimensions: land, sea, air, and submerged surfaces of the sea.
Islamabad officially maintains it will continue to adhere to the policy of Minimum Credible Deterrence — or N-deterrence — acting responsibly to avoid an arms race with any other country. In reality, it is difficult for Islamabad to show restraint on its vertical missiles proliferation, because it plans to balance India’s conventional superiority with its indigenous tactical nuclear capable ballistic missiles.
Similarly, India is not going to hold back on its missiles program because it has already developed intermediate ballistic missiles and engaged in both developing intercontinental ballistic missile and ballistic missile defense system with the connivance of military technologically advanced nations such as the United States, Israel and Russia.
India has also conducted tests of improved versions of its cruise missiles and announced it is beefing up its ballistic missiles inventories.
On May 22, the Indian Defense Research Development Organization and the Indian Army conducted two tests of supersonic BrahMos cruise missile within 24 hours. Indian scientists claim that the BrahMos cruise missile is one of the world’s fastest supersonic cruise missile.
Islamabad on March 29 also conducted a test of Babur-III, a submarine-launched cruise missile having a range of 450 kilometers and the ability to deliver various types of payloads including nuclear warheads. It was tested from a submerged platform using underwater controlled propulsion.
India has also been working on the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) program — a project aimed at producing two-tiered missile defensive systems that comprise the Prithivi Air Defense (PAD) system and Advanced Air Defense (AAD). The PAD provides long-range high-altitude ballistic missile interception during an incoming missile’s midcourse phase and the AAD offers short-range, low-altitude defense against missiles in the terminal phase of their trajectory.
Current trends show that neither India nor Pakistan is prepared to hold back on their missiles development.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
The stated objective of the BMD policy is to defend India against missile strikes from Pakistan. Therefore, the policy necessitates Pakistan to adopt countermeasures to make its strike capability credible. It would attempt to redress Indian BMD by producing more missiles and nuclear weapons.
Islamabad has also been working on new versions of nuclear-capable delivery vehicles using Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology. In January last year, Pakistan successfully conducted the first test of a medium-range, surface-to-surface, ballistic missile Ababeel, which uses the MIRV to deliver multiple conventional and nuclear warheads. It will soon be able to operationalize its MIRVs.
India and Pakistan have just marked the 20th anniversary of their hot-test validation of nuclear weapons. Since then, they have not hot-tested any other nuclear device, however, they have steadily modernized their ballistic and cruise missiles capability, the most reliable carriers for nuclear warheads.
In the last two decades, they have also completed their nuclear triad — a three-pronged military structure which allows them to conduct nuclear attacks using warplanes, land-based missiles, and submarines.
Nuclear optimists, while expressing satisfaction over the operationalization of the nuclear triad, have concluded that both states must act rationally and avoid initiating a conflict which risks deterrence stability between them. The nuclear-triad capability is imperative for stabilizing nuclear deterrence between the confrontational nuclear-armed states.
While proliferation in nuclear weapons increases the safety and security challenges of the nuclear arsenal, realistically, the nuclear-triad has only exacerbated the stability-instability paradox in South Asia.
Nuclear pessimists, therefore, have been alarmed by the probability of nuclear Armageddon in South Asia.
The international community has taken the missiles race between India and Pakistan seriously. Speakers at the Hague Code of Conduct meeting in Vienna on Monday acknowledged the increasing threat of ballistic missiles proliferation in South Asia. They recommended confidence-building measures that would entail arms control arrangement in the region. Indeed, mutual restraint is imperative to deal with the missiles proliferation threat in South Asia.
To conclude, the trends indicate that both India and Pakistan are not prepared to observe restraint on their missiles development. But to continue their missiles race will only serve to jeopardize the prevailing strategic stability in South Asia.
• Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University. E-mail: [email protected]
