LONDON: A surge in the price of crude in the run-up to President Donald Trump’s decision to jettison the Iranian nuclear accord, as well as an agreement by Russia and OPEC to cap production, has been good news for the oil-producing nations of the Middle East.
In GCC countries, higher prices could lift gross domestic product, bolster government coffers and pave the way for budget surpluses or at least smaller deficits.
The recovery could also lead to additional public spending to stimulate consumption in countries that — up until now — have been reeling from austerity following the oil price collapse of 2014.
In truth, the outlook is less than clear. Oil price volatility could now become the new normal, said experts. “If you accept the fact that after Tuesday’s (Iran) decision, the oil market will stay volatile, then here we are ... price movement right now is pretty unpredictable,” said PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga, cited on Thursday by CNBC.
And this from Adrian Del Maestro, oil and gas strategy director at PwC in an interview with Arab News: “Volatility, in all its ramifications, continues to impact the market. “This is another example of geopolitical factors increasingly supporting oil.”
But given the 18 percent rise in the price since January, won’t it be tempting to ratchet up central government expenditure, easing pressure on consumers who have been hit by higher taxes (VAT in particular), as well as subsidy cuts?
Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) said: “There’s still quite a weak domestic demand environment in the region, although higher crude tariffs are clearly positive for GCC oil exporters.”
Malik reckons governments will take a cautious approach. “Producers will wait and see where the oil price goes from here, and will refrain from doing anything rash,” she said.
An ADCB update on the KSA economy published this week said in the first quarter of this year, government spending rose by 17.8 percent year- on-year, reflecting a marked shift to a more expansionary fiscal stance. “This follows three years of contraction in government spending, including by -0.4 percent in 2017. The first quarter rise was supported by the allowance package for nationals announced in January 2018 and, to a lesser degree, payments from the Citizens Account to support low and mid-income families, it said.
The bank noted that the deficit widened by 31 percent year-on-year to SR34.3 billion ($9.1 billion). “This increase came despite a healthy rise in government revenue in the quarter (up 15.4 percent year on year)."
Despite this, ADCB forecast a narrowing in the full-year fiscal deficit in 2018 to 7 percent of GDP. “We see government oil revenue rising in the remaining quarters of this year, especially with the increase in the price from March,” the bank said.
Jason Tuvey at Capital Economics added his voice to those who say Saudi Arabia is loosening the purse strings.
“Saudi first quarter figures showed the underlying fiscal stance was easing, despite the introduction of new taxes, with the latter more than offset by spending on public sector bonuses and the introduction of a new household allowance.”
A Capital Economics report said Riyadh’s oil revenues would be around 5-6 percent of GDP higher in 2018 than in 2017. “That, combined with higher non-oil revenues, should more than offset the rise in spending.”
It added: “We expect looser fiscal policy to start to support a pick-up in growth in the non-oil economy over the coming months.”
Longer-term, however, Capital Economics expects the oil price to drop back over the next couple of years, possibly to $55 per barrel
by 2019.
Downside risks include a ratcheting up of US shale output that would alleviate potentially tight supply; global energy demand may not hold up as well as expected, while higher energy costs could turn the screws on industry.
“If that happens, it could prompt a resumption of austerity, as KSA and others look to rebuild their balance sheets,” according to Capital Economics.
But it would be churlish to ignore the good news. Saudi Arabia’s current account is back in a surplus, and has been for a few quarters. “That shows they have made a good adjustment,” said Tuvey. The turnaround had come mainly as a result of reduced consumption (as higher taxes kicked in) which had a knock-on effect of cutting imports.
Countries such as Kuwait and the UAE have been riding the oil price slump quite well, according to World Bank data, and their budget and current account positions should show substantial surpluses. But worries persist about Bahrain and Oman, where public finances are stretched.
What about GCC stock markets? Turvey contends that GCC equities haven’t gone up as much as expected given the upward path of oil prices. The Tadawul had drifted in the past few weeks.
That said, there is little evidence regional markets have been discounting for increased geopolitical risk, highlighted by clashes between Israel and Iran in Syria, and the potential for blow-back following the election of a Hezbollah-supported government in Lebanon.
Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign currency broker Oanda in London, told Arab News: “It really does seem to be quite a time since investors took notice of heightened geopolitical risk. Whether it’s complacency or a belief that things will only escalate so far is hard to tell.”
Faster rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve are making a bigger impact on stock markets right now, said Erlam. In its May economic update on the region, the IMF noted that conflicts and geopolitical risks persist, and commitment to the implementation of key fiscal measures and structural reforms could weaken, considering the observed increase in oil prices.
The report added: “(But) the continued commitment to fiscal consolidation, although at a slower pace, could, in contrast, boost investor confidence and result in stronger growth.”
ADCB’s report said that if oil prices remain at the current level, there could be some additional increase in government spending (above its current forecasts).
“However, we believe that this could take time to implement, especially as it will likely be driven by capital expenditure.”
The report said any additional support may be more likely to come at the end of 2018 or in 2019.
Does oil price surge herald an end to austerity in GCC?
Does oil price surge herald an end to austerity in GCC?
- Crude oil prices have risen 18 percent since January
- Rising prices are good news for governments that have had to cut spending following a slump in prices from late 2014
Closing Bell: TASI edges down to close at 12,254 points
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index dipped on Thursday, losing 101.16 points, or 0.82 percent, to close at 12,254.53.
The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR6.9 billion ($1.84 billion) as 75 stocks advanced while 144 retreated.
Similarly, the MSCI Tadawul Index decreased by 8.99 points, or 0.58 percent, to close at 1,539.63.
The Kingdom’s parallel market, Nomu, increased, gaining 362.13 points, or 1.38 percent, to close at 26,688.25. This comes as 34 stocks advanced while as many as 27 retreated.
The best-performing stock of the day was Fawaz Abdulaziz Alhokair Co. The company’s share price surged by 6.39 percent to SR11.32.
Other top performers include Etihad Atheeb Telecommunication Co. and Saudi Cable Co., whose share prices soared by 5.57 percent and 5.35 percent, to stand at SR125and SR74.8 respectively. National Metal Manufacturing and Casting Co. and Saudi Steel Pipe Co. also fared well.
The worst performer was Al Sagr Cooperative Insurance Co., whose share price dropped by 7.11 percent to SR33.30.
ACWA Power as well as Bawan Co., did not perform well as their share prices dropped by 6.87 percent and 5.78 percent to stand at SR420 and SR44, respectively.
On the announcements front, a general assembly of Bank AlJazira approved increasing the capital by SR2.05 billion, representing a 25 percent increase.
This growth will be achieved through the capitalization of a portion of the statutory reserves, granting one share for every four shares to strengthen the bank’s capital base and enable it to achieve its strategic objectives, according to Al-Ekhbariya.
Additionally, authorization was granted to the board of directors to distribute interim dividends on a semi-annual/quarterly basis for the fiscal year 2024. Approval was also given to the compensation and benefits policy for senior executives at Bank AlJazira.
Moreover, the profits of Banque Saudi Fransi rose to SR1.15 billion during the first quarter of 2024, a 7 percent increase compared to the same period in 2023, which stood at SR1.07 billion.
The bank attributed this growth to a rise in commission income by 27.5 percent, primarily due to higher returns on financing and investments. However, there was a slight decrease in net commission income by 0.3 percent due to an increase in specific commission expenses.
Additionally, total operating expenses decreased 6.2 percent, mainly due to a reduction in the provision for expected credit losses on loans and advances. This was partially offset by an increase in the provision for other financial assets and rising staff salaries and expenses.
On another note, the stock of Al-Rajhi Co. for Cooperative Insurance SJSC, Al Rajhi Takaful, which is counted for in the insurance sector on the main market, recorded its highest price since listing on April 25, at SR142.
Furthermore, Saudi Exchange approved the listing request for government debt instruments issued by Saudi Arabia, totaling SR5.1 billion.
These instruments comprise issuance number 2024-04-07, valued at SR1.6 billion, and 2024-04-12, valued at SR3.5 billion. Trading of these instruments will commence on April 29.
Additionally, Rawabi Holding Co., also referred to as Rawabi, has successfully concluded its largest Saudi Riyal-denominated sukuk issuance, totaling SR1.2 billion. Driven by high market demand, this milestone surpasses Rawabi’s previous issuance record of SR875 million in 2023.
Since the launch of its sukuk program in 2020, Rawabi Holding has issued approximately SR6.5 billion across 18 tranches and redeemed seven tranches totaling around SR2.9 billion.
Rapid expansion of batteries crucial to meet COP28 climate goals: IEA
RIYADH: Global battery production must be scaled up to meet the climate security goals set at COP28, according to the International Energy Agency.
In its latest report, IEA said battery technology witnessed unprecedented growth in 2023, outstripping almost all other clean power source solutions.
The think tank added that an expected sharp fall in battery costs will accelerate the shift to renewable energy from fossil fuels in the coming years.
“Growth in batteries outpaced almost all other clean energy technologies in 2023 as falling costs, advancing innovation and supportive industrial policies helped drive up demand for a technology that will be critical to delivering the climate and energy targets outlined at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai,” said IEA in the report.
It added: “After their deployment in the power sector more than doubled last year, batteries need to lead a sixfold increase in global energy storage to enable the world to meet 2030 targets.”
During the COP28 summit, nearly 200 countries agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, double the pace of power source efficiency improvements, and transition away from fossil fuels.
The report added that 1,500 gigawatts of battery storage would be required to triple renewable capacity globally by the end of this decade.
However, IEA warned that a shortfall in deploying enough batteries could stall clean energy transitions in the power sector.
Battery manufacturing
According to IEA, battery manufacturing has more than tripled in the last three years, with China accounting for 83 percent of current production capacity, up from 75 percent in 2020.
The report added that 40 percent of announced plans for new battery manufacturing are in advanced economies such as the US and EU.
“If all those projects are built, those economies would have nearly enough manufacturing to meet their own needs to 2030 on the path to net zero emission,” said IEA.
In the earlier days, the most common type of batteries, those based on lithium-ion, were typically associated with consumer electronics. However, today, the energy sector accounts for over 90 percent of overall battery demand, said the report.
The intergovernmental organization added that battery deployment in the power sector increased by more than 130 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, adding a total of 42 GW.
Moreover, batteries have enabled electric car sales to surge from 3 million in 2020 to almost 14 million last year in the transport sector.
Earlier in April, another report by IEA revealed that global sales of electric cars grew by approximately 25 percent in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2023.
“The electricity and transport sectors are two key pillars for bringing down emissions quickly enough to meet the targets agreed at COP28 and keep open the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, ” said Fatih Birol, IEA’s executive director.
He added: “Batteries will provide the foundations in both areas, playing an invaluable role in scaling up renewables and electrifying transport while delivering secure and sustainable energy for businesses and households.”
Falling costs
According to IEA, battery costs have fallen by over 90 percent in less than 15 years, one of the fastest declines ever seen in clean energy technologies.
However, the agency highlighted that costs must come down further without compromising quality and technology.
“The combination of solar PV (photovoltaic) and batteries is today competitive with new coal plants in India. And just in the next few years, it will be cheaper than new coal in China and gas-fired power in the US. Batteries are changing the game before our eyes,” said Birol.
According to IEA, ensuring energy security also requires greater diversity in supply chains, including extracting and processing the critical minerals used in batteries.
Birol noted that governments worldwide have an important role in building resilient local and international supply chains to ensure that securely and sustainably produced batteries come to market at a reasonable cost.
“Legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US, the Net-Zero Industry Act in the EU, and the Production Linked Incentive in India are good examples of how policy can affect real change in the industry by backing technology manufacturing,” said Birol.
He also underscored the necessity to implement supportive policies to help speed up deployment by minimizing barriers to market entry for developers and reducing red tape that can stifle new projects.
Key to energy transition
In its report, IEA also highlighted the versatility of battery storage to ensure clean energy transition.
“In the power sector, batteries help smooth out the variability of renewable electricity from technologies such as wind and solar,” said the agency.
IEA added that battery storage can alleviate grid congestion in times of high supply, offering an outlet to capture and store excess renewable electricity that would otherwise be lost.
“Reducing emissions and getting on track to meet international energy and climate targets will hinge on whether the world can scale up batteries fast enough. More than half the job that we need to do will rely, at least in some part, on battery deployment,” added Birol.
Moreover, batteries can also provide critical service in the case of emergencies caused by extreme weather or other disruptions.
The deployment of batteries will also provide the grid with highly technical services, such as voltage and frequency control, that can help system operators and provide access to people who lack electricity.
“In a pathway to achieving universal energy access worldwide by 2030, they help 400 million people in emerging and developing economies gain electricity access through decentralized solutions like solar home systems and mini-grids with batteries,” IEA concluded.
More than two-thirds of UAE retail investors hold stocks in AI companies: eToro survey
RIYADH: More than 70 percent of retail investors in the UAE have stocks of companies developing artificial intelligence, according to a survey by trading platform eToro.
The 71 percent mark underscores a widespread understanding of AI’s potential as a catalyst for innovation and a source of competitive edge.
UAE retail investors’ interest in AI goes beyond holding stocks. When asked about their use or plans to use AI tools like ChatGPT to guide investment decisions, 39 percent reported that they already employ these technologies.
Global Markets Strategist at eToro, Ben Laidler, said: “Microsoft’s recent $1.5 billion investment in Abu Dhabi’s G42 is a big endorsement of the UAE’s potential as a global AI hub, which is reflected in the survey results showing widespread AI adoption by local investors and consumers.”
Millennials lead the charge when it comes to generational users, with 40 percent of those aged 25-44 using AI tools.
Baby Boomers and Gen X investors follow closely, with 39 percent and 38 percent, respectively.
Underlining the critical role that artificial intelligence might play in future investment strategies, an additional 52 percent of respondents, beyond those already using AI tools, said they are willing to adopt the technology to guide or adjust their portfolios in the future.
This trend defies generational stereotypes, with the older cohorts of investors directing the charge.
Baby Boomers lead in interest in integrating AI into investment planning, with 60 percent showing enthusiasm, followed by Gen X at 58 percent.
Laidler said: “AI stocks were the performance juggernauts of 2023, leading the tech sector revival and propelling the S&P 500 into bull market territory. AI trends helped make NVIDIA and Meta the best S&P 500 stock performers of last year, with their share prices tripling.”
He added: “Whilst we’re unlikely to see a repeat performance in 2024, the benefits of AI’s rapid adoption are broadening across the stock market and economy as it rapidly moves from hype to reality.”
Furthermore, eToro analyzed which companies experienced the highest proportional increase in UAE-based investors on its platform from quarter to quarter, revealing that AI stocks were the most popular theme during the first three months of the year.
Omani officials forge economic alliances with Saudi Arabia, Japan, and US
RIYADH: Oman’s industrial infrastructure is set to receive a boost following a new agreement with Saudi Arabia, fostering private sector participation in the country’s economic growth.
A memorandum of understanding, aimed at financing the infrastructure of several industrial zones in Oman, was signed during a meeting between Minister of Finance Sultan bin Salem Al-Habsi and Sultan Abdulrahman Al-Marshad, CEO of the Saudi Fund for Development, the Oman News Agency reported.
Discussions centered on cooperation mechanisms between Oman and the fund, along with updates on collaborative development projects.
The aim is to develop the industrial and logistical sectors by providing all necessary basic services, thereby encouraging the private sector to contribute to Oman’s economic development in line with Oman Vision 2040, as reported by the agency.
This memorandum falls within the framework of cooperation between the two parties to support developmental areas in Oman. These encompass infrastructure, higher and vocational education programs, and water, along with the industry and mining sectors. Additionally, it includes transportation and communications sectors, as well as developmental projects in the energy sector.
On another note, Ali bin Masoud Al-Sunaidi, chairman of the Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones, met with Ken Saito, minister of economy, trade and industry of Japan, and his accompanying delegation in Tokyo.
During the meeting, they reviewed the business cooperation between the two countries and the major projects under construction in the economic and free zones and industrial cities in Oman, notably the low-carbon iron production project in the Special Economic Zone in Duqm.
The visit also included meetings with officials from companies engaged in iron and its derivatives production, and renewable energy equipment manufacturing companies, as well as a visit to Yokohama Port to learn about its experience in receiving ships specialized in energy and petroleum product transportation.
Also on April 24, Oman and the US explored ways to enhance trade, investment, and address challenges comprehensively during the second strategic dialogue held in Washington.
The Omani side was chaired by Sheikh Khalifa bin Ali bin Issa al-Harthy, undersecretary for Diplomatic Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, while the US side was chaired by Jose Fernandez, undersecretary of state for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment.
Both sides discussed opportunities for American companies in Oman, focusing on ICT, semiconductors, and clean energy services, expressing commitment to enhancing cooperation in clean energy solutions and mineral investments.
They addressed environmental priorities under the Omani-American cooperation memorandum, fostering communication between researchers from both countries for clean energy research.
Saudi NHC, Spain’s Urbas to construct almost 600 housing units in Al-Fursan suburb
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Al-Fursan suburb will soon be home to 589 new residential units worth around SR1 billion ($266 million) thanks to a deal sealed by the National Housing Co.
Inked with Urbas Middle East Real Estate Co., a subsidiary of the Spanish Urbas Group, the agreement involves the development as well as construction of the housing units on an area spanning 150,000 sq. m, the Saudi Press Agency reported.
This collaboration marks a significant milestone in the development of the Al-Fursan suburb. It also promises to set new standards in property development.
“This agreement complements the efforts of the recent visit to Spain and continues to attract international investments with major companies to provide various housing products that fulfill and meet the desires of citizens,” Saudi Minister of Municipal and Rural Affairs and Housing Majid Al-Hogail said in a post on X.
“As an extension of our journey in attracting the best international experiences and expertise in the real estate development industry, I was pleased to meet the CEO of the Spanish company Urbas, which is planned to be one of the companies developing the Al-Fursan neighborhood project in Riyadh,” Al-Hogail added.
The minister also highlighted how this step will contribute to providing innovative housing options and facilitate the exchange of experiences between Saudi and international developers.
Moreover, NHC has also revealed the sale of 1,300 residential units within Al-Fursan in the first quarter of 2024, generating a total value exceeding SR1.5 billion.
This accomplishment emphasizes the firm’s keenness in creating vibrant, quality living spaces that meet and exceed the expectations of modern residents.
Al-Fursan, known as one of the largest urban development projects in the region, is designed to align with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030.
The suburb covers an area of 35 million sq. m. and is set to feature over 50,000 housing units, accommodating more than 250,000 residents.
It is equipped with over 190 crucial facilities, including educational, healthcare, and recreational services, all surrounded by more than 6 million sq. m. of green spaces. This widespread greenery is part of a broader initiative to further elevate the living environment and contribute to the Saudi Green Initiative by planting over half a million trees.
Urbas Group has experience in over 20 countries with 30,000 residential units. Urbas Middle East plans to grow in Saudi Arabia, showing its commitment to global expansion.
