India and Pakistan can learn from the promising North-South Korea summit
The recent inter-Korean summit at the Panmunjom border crossing has fostered optimism for a lasting peace between the two states and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
On April 27, North Korean President Kim Jong-un made a historic move by crossing the demilitarized zone to meet his South Korean counterpart President Moon Jae-in.
Kim and Moon made the bold move to end 65 years of hostility and hatred. In the Panmunjom Declaration, the leaders agreed to “hold dialogue and negotiations in various fields including at a high level, and to take active measures to implement the agreements reached at the summit.”
Koreans can breathe a big sigh of relief. And the South Asian twins can replicate the recent summit’s constructive outcome for constituting peace in the region despite the historical and political differences between the Korean Peninsula and South Asia.
India and Pakistan’s ruling elites can immediately restart their suspended composite dialogue for confidence-building. The dialogue, certainly, facilitates cooperation and prevents escalation of conflict at the Line of Control.
Moreover, like the Koreans, Pakistanis and Indians can establish a joint liaison office that encourages active cooperation, exchanges, visits, and contacts at all levels. Indeed, such arrangements enable a functionalist approach based on the logic of “economy first’ rather than “military-political issues first.”
Koreans have been waiting for an official end to the Korean war, and a non-aggression treaty. Similarly, Kashmiris have been waiting for the implementation of the United Nations Security Council resolutions and transforming the Line of Control that divided the Kashmiris.
Kim and Moon contemplated the denuclearization of the peninsula and establishing lasting peace in the region. Through a joint statement they assured: “There will be no more war on the Korean Peninsula and thus a new era of peace has begun.”
Ushering a new era of peace seems a realistic aspiration, but denuclearization as the complete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of North Korea’s nuclear weapons is implausible. Nevertheless, the reduction of tension between Pyongyang and Seoul ended the probability of mutually assured destruction, and guaranteed the continuity of deterrence stability in the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea joined the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1985, but withdrew in 2003. It conducted its first nuclear explosion in 2006, which was reported, and fizzled out. Nevertheless, the dramatic expansion of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs during the past decade alarmed the Americans, South Koreans and Japanese.
The US nuclear umbrella has prevented South Korea and Japan from withdrawing from the NPT and developing their own nuclear weapons capability. The umbrella is guaranteeing both states security as part of the US strategy of extended deterrence. The US extended a nuclear umbrella over these states to protect them from the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea.
The herculean task for President Moon is to persuade Kim to dismantle his North Korean nuclear arsenal to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, whereas Kim has given the impression that he will observe the moratorium on nuclear weapon and ballistic missile testing.
Pyongyang’s refraining from vertical proliferation very much depends on its evolving understanding with Washington. The likely summit between President Donald Trump and President Kim will have a decisive impact on the strategic environment of the Korean Peninsula.
Economic cooperation between Islamabad and Delhi not only contributes to the prosperity of the region but also saves South Asia from a nuclear catastrophe.
Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
President Kim demanded the complete disarmament of the region. Perhaps this demand will not be acceptable to the Americans. The likely outcome of the current wave of confidence-building measures in the Korean Peninsula will be the capping of North Korea’s nuclear and missile program. It was reported that Kim informed Moon in Punggye-ri about the closure of the North’s still usable nuclear test sites in May 2018.
Neither India nor Pakistan has a nuclear umbrella. Therefore, Islamabad and New Delhi developed their indigenous nuclear weapons arsenals. Presently, both Pakistan and India are modernizing the triad of their nuclear forces.
Islamabad seems interested in the regional arms control arrangement instead of nuclear disarmament. It proposed to New Delhi a restraint regime based on three points, i.e. nuclear restraint in the light of the Pakistan-India situation; second, that conventional imbalances should be corrected; and third, disputes, including that on Kashmir, should be resolved so that the risk of an arms race could be minimized. India, however, opposed the proposal of Pakistan.
Realistically, the strategic environment of South Asia is dissimilar from the Korean Peninsula. Therefore, identical outcomes in both regions should not be expected. The Great Powers forcefully divided the Korean nation during the Korean War, whereas the subcontinent was divided into two independent states after the heroic freedom struggle of Congress and Muslim League leadership.
Reunification transformed Germany into the economic and political powerhouse of Europe. The expected Korean reintegration not only ends the fear of nuclear weapons’ use in the Korean Peninsula, but also pays socio-economic dividends.
Admittedly, reunification of India and Pakistan is an unrealistic expectation. Nevertheless, both states’ ruling elites can follow the Kim-Moon example in calming their belligerence. Economic cooperation between Islamabad and Delhi not only contributes to the prosperity of the region but also saves South Asia from a nuclear catastrophe.
To conclude, one can be optimistic about the establishment of a lasting peace between North and South Korea. Enduring peace between India and Pakistan will be an arduous task without the amicable solution of the chronic Kashmir dispute.
Despite the continuing Kashmir dispute, the South Asian twins can embrace peace, restore cultural and trade relations and restrain the conventional and nuclear arms race.
— Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal is an Islamabad-based analyst and professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University.
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