Twin brothers Afghanistan and Pakistan need to make peace
Pakistan and Afghanistan have a symbiotic relationship. Their peace and stability are interlinked. They have been called twin brothers. But their bilateral relations have also faced formidable challenges. A 2,500 kilometer porous border separates them, and some Pashtun tribes live on both sides. The twin brothers have also been suspicious of each other as their fugitives have found sanctuaries on the other side of the border. The international community realizes the importance of their improved relations. Friendly relations between the two nations would not only multiply trade but also put an end to the fratricidal conflict within Afghanistan.
It is well known that the US and China have been nudging both leaderships to talk to each other. Both want the Afghan Taliban to talk to the Kabul government to achieve peace. The Kabul government and the Taliban have also made peace overtures to each other in recent weeks. The Taliban are ascendant in some areas but realize that they would not rule the country again. Similarly the Kabul authorities know that without accommodating opposition into power structures, real and enduring peace would remain elusive. And Daesh has emerged lately as a common foe. The Taliban have by now realized that their demand for talking directly to the US will not be granted and is, therefore, unrealistic.
Turmoil in Afghanistan impacts negatively not only on its own economy but also that of Pakistan. Economists believe that Pakistan GDP could grow at an annual rate of 8 percent instead of the present 6 percent if peace is achieved in Afghanistan. According to the 2010 agreement, Afghanistan allowed Pakistan overland trade with Central Asia but that could not materialize because of continued conflict there. Similarly Afghanistan could not reach its full potential in overland exports to India, which had been allowed by Pakistan. No economy can produce substantial exportable surplus in an environment of insecurity. For the same reason Pakistan has not been able to import electric power from Tajikistan under CASA-1000. And long-envisaged gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to India has not been constructed due to the security situation in Afghanistan. Turmoil in Afghanistan has a negative impact on the entire region.
Friendly relations between the two nations would increase prosperity and benefit the whole region.
Javed Hafeez
Alice Wells, the US principal deputy assistant secretary for South and Central Asia who visited Pakistan recently, had this to say: "Our conversation with Pakistan is about the unique influence it has and the unique levers it has in helping to shape Taliban expectations and to convince the Taliban to walk through what we all recognize as an open door.” Similarly China has also played a role in bringing the two countries closer to talk about their common issues. It was in this context that Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi visited Kabul recently. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson welcomed this development.
Abbasi met President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Afghan politician and former warlord, and exchanged views on all important facets of relations including border control, rail and road links, the repatriation of Afghan refugees from Pakistan and putting an end to mutual accusations. The two sides agreed on the Afghanistan-Pakistan Action Plan for Peace and Solidarity. This action plan aims to remove misunderstandings and enhance co-operation against terrorism. Action will be taken against fugitives and irreconcilable elements. Neither of the two nations will allow its territory to be used for anti-state activities against the neighbor. Joint supervision and co-ordinated action against undesirable elements was also agreed on. Five working groups have been established for the necessary co-operation mechanism. PM Abbasi urged the Afghan Taliban to join the reconciliation process.
While this visit is certainly a move forward, the steps agreed on would require sustained effort for their fruition. The Kabul government in many areas of the country is, at best, weak. Its capacity to arrest and deport fugitives is limited. The Taliban would have an excuse to fight on as long as foreign troops remain in Afghanistan. But the Kabul government and the Afghan economy are both dependent on the presence of foreign forces. And Pakistani clout with the Afghan Taliban is also not unlimited. Unrealistic hopes can result in frustration. But efforts for peace must be sustained for the benefit of this region — from India to Central Asia.
– Javed Hafeez is a former Pakistani diplomat with much experience of the Middle East. He writes weekly columns in Pakistani and Gulf newspapers and appears regularly on satellite TV channels as a defense and political analyst. Twitter: @hafiz_javed
