Bad marriage but no breakup

There is no indication yet of any improvement in troubled US-Pakistani relations, despite high-level engagement in the past months. Like in the past, the carrot-and-stick policy being pursued by the Trump administration has failed to break the ice. Yet there is no chance of the estranged allies walking out of the relationship, however strained it may be.
The visit to Islamabad on Dec. 4 of Defense Secretary James Mattis and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford is part of the US attempt to find common ground to cooperate in fighting the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan.
Days before the visit, the US Congress dropped a provision that linked reimbursements to Pakistan with demonstrable action against Lashkar-e-Taiba. Islamabad welcomed the move, but pressure on it to act against the Haqqani network seems to have intensified.
The most fierce faction of the Afghan Taliban, the network is alleged to be operating from its base along the Pakistani-Afghan border. Last week, the US withheld half of a $700 million disbursement to Pakistan for deploying forces along the border. The withheld amount would only be released after demonstrable proof of Islamabad’s action against the militant network.
Pakistan strongly rejects the allegation of Afghan insurgents using its soil for cross-border attacks, and accuses Washington of scapegoating it for the US failure in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the US has intensified drone strikes against insurgents along the Pakistani-Afghan border. The latest visit of American officials and the cut in aid are not likely to help mend fences.
But there is too much at stake for a complete rupture. The deepening Afghan crisis threatens regional security, and Pakistan’s support is critical for the US to extricate itself from the quagmire. Similarly, Islamabad cannot afford to completely alienate Washington. But can the two countries find common ground to maintain even a transactional relationship?
The current state of bilateral relations is in turbulence, but we saw them hit their lowest ebb in 2011 following the US Navy Seal raid against Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbotabad, and the airstrike on a Pakistani border post that killed more than a dozen soldiers and officers. Those incidents drove Islamabad to close down supply lines to coalition forces in Afghanistan.
That resulted in a recalibration of relations, morphing from being a strategic alliance to more of a transactional arrangement. Both civil and military aid from the US had already been curtailed during former President Barack Obama’s second term. Now the residual transactional relationship has also come under strain after Trump’s announcement of his administration’s South Asia policy earlier this year.

Relations between the US and Pakistan have suffered due to the deepening Afghan crisis and while Islamabad’s support is critical for Washington, its full cooperation is not expected unless its national security concerns are addressed.

Zahid Hussian

There is nothing in Trump’s newly laid out policy that can bring the 16-year-long Afghan war to an end. Linking Afghanistan with America’s South Asia policy is only likely to deepen regional tensions. Although Trump has said US troops will not stay in Afghanistan for long, there is certainly no clear exit plan. As in the past, the emphasis is on a military solution that may keep the US involved in the Afghan war forever.
It is hard for the Trump administration to win Pakistan’s full cooperation unless the latter’s national security concerns are addressed. Like its predecessors, the Trump administration believes in unquestioned cooperation, ignoring Islamabad’s interests completely.
A major worry for Pakistan is Trump’s policy of getting India more deeply engaged in Afghanistan. Islamabad’s concerns about India’s economic and strategic cooperation with Kabul may be exaggerated, but previous US administrations were careful not to encourage New Delhi to expand its role in Afghanistan. Pakistani officials say the Trump administration has crossed a red line by making India part of its Afghan strategy.
Meanwhile, American leverage over Islamabad has weakened over the years, with Pakistan diversifying its relations with other regional powers. Its growing strategic partnership with China is not the only factor behind Islamabad’s display of firmness.
Despite the stalemate, a complete breakdown of relations between Washington and Islamabad is not an option. But it will not be easy for the two erstwhile allies to bring down the huge wall of distrust that has now come up.
• Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC. He is author of “Frontline Pakistan: The Struggle with Militant Islam” and “The Scorpion’s Tail: The Relentless Rise of Islamic Militants in Pakistan.” “Frontline Pakistan” was the Wall Street Journal’s book of the year in 2007.